The Big Story 

Experts say they wouldn’t bet on President Trump’s tariff plans as an answer to the nation’s debt problems.

© The Associated Press

As Trump faces pressure from both sides of the aisle over his trade plan, he and officials have partly defended his tariff actions as a key revenue-raiser that can help tackle the nation’s debt and reduce taxes.

But experts are doubtful of the idea, pointing conflicting goals from the administration on trade.

“You see a lot of different explanations for the purpose of the tariffs, and one of the central problems is that those different explanations are in conflict with each other, if not, flatly contradictory,” Ben Page, a senior fellow at the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center, said in an interview.

While Page and other experts agree tariffs can help raise revenue, he also pointed to hopes from some Republicans that Trump’s tariffs plans could lead to fairer trade deals and more manufacturing jobs.

“If you do those negotiations, then clearly you’re not going to raise the revenue, because the tariffs will finally go away as part of the negotiations,” Page argued. He also said the goal of raising revenue “is a little bit in tension” with efforts to help boost manufacturing, noting “in order to raise revenue, you still have to have a bunch of imports coming in.”

The Hill's Aris Folley has more here.

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Essential Reads 

Key business and economic news with implications this week and beyond:

Michigan Democrat backs Trump’s China tariffs, knocks approach as ‘chaotic’

Top Trump econ adviser says White House is studying ways to fire Powell

Acting IRS commissioner replaced after Bessent, Musk spar: Reports

Wall Street Journal defends Powell from Trump attacks

Tax Watch 

Welcome to Tax Watch, a new feature in The Hill's Business & Economy newsletter focused on the fight over tax reform and the push to extend the 2017 Trump tax cuts this year.

Two weeks until reconciliation markups

When the House returns from recess in two weeks, it will be a mad dash to finish the reconciliation package, which leadership wants to complete by Memorial Day. 

Republicans have no small task ahead of them. The House and Senate budget resolution passed last week contains very different instructions for committees in the two chambers that lawmakers will eventually need to stitch them together.

The House tax-writing committee is instructed to add no more than $4.5 trillion to the deficit, while the Senate tax-writing committee is instructed to add no more than $1.5 trillion.

The House Agriculture Committee has to make reductions to the tune of $230 billion, while the Senate Agriculture Committee has to make just $1 billion in cuts.

“Ultimately, we’ll have to come into agreement on the bill even though there may be differences in the reconciliation resolutions between the House and Senate,” Sen. John Hoeven (R-N.D.) told The Hill earlier this month.

— Tobias Burns

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