What to know as you watch Taiwan’s polls – POLITICO

Decoding transatlantic relations with Beijing.

By PHELIM KINE

with STUART LAU

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Hi, China Watchers. Today we offer a one-stop preview of Taiwan’s presidential election on Saturday, examine an effort to boost Taiwan’s “public resilience” in the face of potential aggression by Beijing and profile a book that argues the Biden administration should protect the island’s “uncomfortable de facto independence” as the price of peace across the Taiwan Strait. 

ICYMI: Anne McElvoy, the host of POLITICO’s Power Play podcast, traveled to Taiwan recently and spoke with DPP heavyweight Vincent Chao, Alexander Huang from the main opposition KMT party, as well as Taiwan’s Ambassador to the U.S. Alexander Yui. Have a listen.

Let’s get to it. — Phelim

Taiwan’s presidential election: A cliffhanger for U.S.-Taiwan-China ties

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It’s a nonstop flurry of Taiwan election-focused POLITICO coverage and events this week. Stuart wrote in from Taipei with this essential primer on the Taiwan-E.U. dynamic. Yours truly provided an analysis of the election’s implications for U.S.-China-Taiwan relations. 

I followed that up Wednesday with a trans-Pacific POLITICO Live virtual event — Turning Point for Taiwan: A Presidential Election Preview. That brought together Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Ill.), ranking member of the House Select Committee on China, Rep. Andy Barr (R-Ky.), co-chair of the Congressional Taiwan Caucus, Yun Fan, a legislator for Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party, and Jason Hsu, a former opposition Kuomintang party legislator.

Below are some of the highlights of that discussion, edited for lengthy and clarity, the entirety of which you can view here.

‘No illusions’ in Taiwan about the threat from China 

The representatives from Taiwan’s two major parties may have different strategies for dealing with Beijing, but they had one clear point of agreement: The danger from China is growing.

“The top Chinese official Song Tao [head of the Taiwan Affairs Office] said in November that  Taiwan and China are facing a choice between war and peace, prosperity and decline,” said DPP legislator Fan. That suggests the Chinese Communist Party is trying to use the election “to take advantage of people’s fear, to create internal conflict and harm Taiwan democracy,” she added.

Former KMT legislator Hsu was similarly blunt: “We the KMT have no illusions about China — we believe that the China we’re dealing with today with Xi Jinping as its leader is very different from the China we dealt with 10 or 20 years ago.”

The danger of “potential miscalculations” across the Taiwan Strait requires Taiwan’s next government “to manage the risks with China, but also to conduct a healthy relationship and exchange with China,” Hsu said.

Taiwan doesn’t buy the ‘American skepticism narrative’

China and the opposition KMT are trying to stoke fear among Taiwan’s electorate that the U.S. is an unreliable partner in the face of possible Chinese aggression against the island, warned the DPP’s Fan. 

“The purpose of this American skepticism narrative is to undermine the progress made in recent years in forging U.S.-Taiwan ties, as well as to undermine the level of public confidence in whether international allies will assist Taiwan in resisting China’s coercion,” she said. 

Speculation that U.S. support for Taiwan could fall prey to the same kind of congressional funding impasse that has frozen additional support for Ukraine is misplaced, Fan said. “We have a legal framework, the Taiwan Relations Act, which provides the space for the U.S. to help Taiwan with our self-defense,” she explained.

A partisan split over ‘strategic ambiguity’ 

The utility of the U.S. “strategic ambiguity” policy regarding American willingness to defend Taiwan in the event of an attack by China was the sole issue in Wednesday’s discussion that hinted at partisan divide.That policy dictates that the U.S. refuses to specify exactly how it would respond to conflict across the Taiwan Strait. President Joe Biden’s multiple assertions that the U.S. will defend Taiwan from Chinese aggression suggests the policy is nearing its expiry date despite White House insistence to the contrary. 

“I’m for strategic ambiguity — we need to be ambiguous because anything other than that would be provocative, and unnecessarily so,” Krishnamoorthi said. That stance provides an implicit incentive to Taiwan to prioritize self-defense rather than reliance on outside assistance. “At the end of the day, the Taiwanese people need to defend themselves — that is extremely important,” Krishnamoorthi added.

But the work of the House Select Committee on China and its “Ten for Taiwan” recommendations aimed to deter aggression against the island may have already made “strategic ambiguity” redundant, said Barr. “We’re actually reducing the ambiguity because with those recommendations we are making clear that the pain for the CCP would be very severe in the event that they changed their rhetorical belligerence and their military exercises into actual kinetic aggression,” Barr said.  That greater clarity “enhances deterrence and is the best path for peace on the military tactical level,” said Barr.

Taiwan’s internet is an Achilles heel

Taiwan needs U.S. help in protecting its national internet infrastructure capacity in the event of aggression by China, warned former KMT legislator Hsu. 

The U.S. should provide the technology to allow Taiwan’s connectivity to survive destruction of undersea internet cables that currently are the island’s sole digital pathways to the outside world, he argued. The severing of an Internet cable to Taiwan’s offshore island of Matsu earlier this year — which Taipei blamed on Beijing — underscores the importance of ensuring that the island’s internet can survive a possible future Chinese invasion, Hsu said. 

“We need low orbit satellite connectivity — we cannot rely on Elon Musk’s Starlink because he has a large business interest in China,” Hsu said. “In the event of a conflict we need to keep the island operating and functional and it’s crucial to keep the island [digitally] connected,” Hsu said.

TRANSLATING WASHINGTON

— WHITE HOUSE: BEIJING MEDDLING IN TAIWAN ELECTION: The Chinese government is trying to influence the result of Taiwan’s presidential and legislative  elections on Saturday through disinformation and misinformation operations, the White House said  on Wednesday. “It is no secret that Beijing has views on the outcome of the election and is trying to shape and coerce in various different ways,” a senior administration official granted anonymity because they weren’t authorized to speak on-record told reporters on Wednesday. The White House is confident that those efforts won’t affect poll outcomes and warned China against intimidation tactics targeting the island after the election. “Beijing will be the provocateur should it choose to respond with additional military pressure or coercion,” the official said. The Chinese embassy didn’t respond to a request for comment. I have the full story here. 

— SPEAKER JOHNSON MEETS TAIWAN’S U.S. ENVOY: House Speaker Mike Johnson had a first meeting with Taiwan’s U.S. envoy, Alexander Tah-ray Yui, in Washington on Tuesday. Johnson used the occasion to declare that the U.S. “stood shoulder to shoulder with the Taiwanese people and … wanted to assist in defending Taiwan and deterring military provocations by the Chinese Communist Party,” Taiwan’s Foreign Ministry said in a statement on Wednesday. Beijing wasn’t pleased. U.S. officials should “stop official contact with the Taiwan region, stop sending wrong signals to ‘Taiwan independence’ separatist forces and refrain from interfering in elections in the Taiwan region in any form,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said in response on Wednesday. “In the face of Chinese aggression, Speaker Johnson was proud to meet the newly-appointed Ambassador Yui to reiterate the strength of the U.S. alliance with Taiwan and the importance of Taiwan’s democratic process,” a spokesperson for Johnson said in a statement.  

— CHINESE MILITARY BRASS DELIVER ‘STERN’ MESSAGES: Top U.S. and Chinese defense officials met face-to-face at the Pentagon Monday and Tuesday for the first time since January 2020, a renewal of what had been a yearly meeting to discuss operations and other military-to-military contacts. POLITICO’s Paul McLeary has the full story here.

The Chinese defense ministry gave its take on the meeting on Wednesday, saying  Chinese participants used the meeting to deliver Beijing’s “stern positions” on issues including U.S. support for Taiwan. That included a demand that the U.S. “stop arming Taiwan, and not support Taiwan independence.”

— BEIJING: OUR NUKES ARE OUR BUSINESS: The Chinese government has no intention of entering into talks with the U.S. about its rapidly growing nuclear arsenal, a senior Chinese diplomat said on Tuesday. “When it comes to negotiations and dialogues, I think that the United States and Russia which possess the largest nuclear arsenals in the world should take the lead and have negotiations between themselves,” Liu Jianchao, head of the CCP’s International Liaison Department, told a crowd at a Council on Foreign Relations event in New York on Tuesday. Liu’s response signals Beijing’s deaf ear to national security adviser Jake Sullivan’s offer in June of “substantive engagement on strategic nuclear issues” with China.

TRANSLATING EUROPE

FINLAND PRESSES XI ON BALTIC CABLE DAMAGE: Outgoing Finnish President Sauli Niinistö praised Xi for Beijing’s cooperation with Helsinki over an ongoing investigation into a Chinese ship’s involvement in damaged Baltic Sea pipelines. Speaking in a virtual farewell call on Wednesday, Niinistö made reference to the sensitive issue, which sparked concerns about China’s possible role in helping Russia launch hybrid warfares against NATO, which Finland recently joined. “The presidents noted the constructive dialogue between the countries regarding the Balticconnector pipeline incident,” Niinistö said, according to his office. Finland’s Minister for European Affairs Anders Adlercreutz said last month that it was hard to believe damage to the pipeline was an accident, after an investigation by Finnish authorities identified Chinese container ship Newnew Polar Bear as the main suspect.

NEXT ON XI’S AGENDA — BELGIUM: Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo arrives in Beijing today for a meeting with Xi tomorrow — likely the last between the Chinese leader and a Western counterpart before Saturday’s Taiwanese presidential election. De Croo is traveling also in his capacity as coordinator of the EU’s policy agenda. It’s not all sweet-talk, however: De Croo also vowed to discuss with Xi China’s penetration of Belgian politics. Camille Gijs had this preview article before she jetted off with De Croo.

EUROPE DISTANCES ITSELF FROM CHINA’S SATELLITE SCARE IN TAIWAN: The European Space Agency said it was not involved in China’s Tuesday launch of the Einstein probe satellite, which was jointly researched with the European-funded organization. The satellite, which flew over southern Taiwanese airspace, triggered an island-wide presidential emergency alert sent to all Taiwanese mobile phones. The “Einstein Probe is led by the Chinese Academy of Sciences which is responsible for the launch date and trajectory,” a spokesperson for the Paris-based agency said in an email to China Watcher. Taiwanese authorities said the alert was necessary because the satellite’s trajectory deviated from the original path plan, a claim Beijing has not addressed.

HOT FROM THE CHINA WATCHERSPHERE

— TAIWAN BATTLES PRE-ELECTION CYBERATTACK BARRAGE: The Chinese government has been linked to a cascade of cyberattacks targeting Taiwan in the run-up to its presidential and legislative elections on Saturday. The intensity and sophistication of those attacks are unprecedented, sophisticated and underscore Beijing’s increasingly robust cyber threat capabilities. POLITICO’s Maggie Miller and Joseph Gedeon have the full story here. 

— REPORT: DETERRENCE ALONE WON’T PROTECT TAIWAN: Foreign policy “analytical blind spots” that prioritize military deterrence to prevent Chinese aggression against Taiwan may actually increase the likelihood of cross-Strait conflict, argues a report released by the Quincy Institute think tank on Thursday. “This fixation on the military dimension feeds into the destabilization of the Taiwan issue, brought about by heightened suspicions of the other side’s intentions,” the report said. Recommendations include providing Beijing “political reassurances to avert conflict” including a recommitment to the U.S. One China Policy, the report said.

THREE MINUTES WITH …

Enoch Wu, a former member of Taiwan’s National Security Council, is the founder of the island’s nonprofit civil society organization Forward Alliance dedicated to providing civilian emergency response training for everything from natural disasters to a possible attack from China. Wu spoke to China Watcher about resilience, self-reliance and U.S. support for Taiwan.

Responses have been edited for clarity and length

Does the congressional impasse in allocating new funding to support Ukraine’s efforts to resist Russia affect Taiwan’s confidence in U.S. resolve to protect the island?

When we’re facing a challenge this grave, any doubts about the motivation of our most important security partner is not helpful. And if the U.S. is only concerned about Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp. and its engineers, that is also a talking point that the CCP leverages to say “Hey, the U.S. does not have Taiwan’s interest at heart. It really only cares about making sure TSMC plants are set up, or at least that its engineers are relocated to China.” That’s all part of a narrative that’s being pushed by folks that want to challenge the strength of this relationship — which is similar to Russian talking points about how Ukraine is just a tool to weaken Russia.

Why does Taiwan need civilian emergency response training?

Partnerships matter, alliances matter, but any sovereign country needs to have the resolve to protect their home, even if no help were to arrive. And it’s work we need to do even if China were a democracy today. It’s a work we need to do regardless of what U.S. policy is. 

How prepared is Taiwan’s military for potential conflict with China?

There is a lot of talk about hardware and not enough talk about education and training which would actually enable a more constructive defense policy. If you look at Ukraine between 2014 and 2022 — the amount of work that went into reforming their defense establishment, the way they helped many senior generals to retire and let a younger crop of officers come up — that’s the work that we need to do. We need that hard military capability that can hold out, be it two weeks or two months or longer. And we need a civil society that supports that work.

HEADLINES

Financial Times: Becoming Taiwan: in China’s shadow, an island asserts its identity

France 24: Taiwan’s ‘White Terror’ dictatorship still divides society

Bloomberg: U.S. intelligence shows flawed China missiles led Xi to purge army

ONE BOOK, THREE QUESTIONS

Agenda Publishing

The Book: Taiwan: A Contested Democracy Under Threat

The Authors: The Authors: Jonathan Sullivan is an associate professor in the School of Politics and International Relations at the University of Nottingham. Lev Nachman is an assistant professor in the College of Social Science at National Chengchi University in Taipei.

What is the most important takeaway from your book?

That there is so much more to Taiwan than just its role in great power competition. Taiwan itself has agency in the world, and most importantly, Taiwanese people themselves want peace and normalcy as much as any other state in the world. 

What was the most surprising thing you learned while writing this book?

How summarizing Taiwanese history in one short chapter is really hard! Most popular writing on Taiwan’s history begins after 1949 [after retreating KMT forces, losers in the Chinese civil war, occupied the island] — a very misleading start to Taiwanese history. Instead we begin on Indigenous histories, the various colonialisms that Taiwan faced, and eventually how the KMT took control of Taiwan before its eventual democratization in the 1980s. It is a lot to cram into one chapter!

 How can the U.S. help ensure the survival of Taiwan’s “contested democracy” under threat from Beijing?

Whatever policies or measures the U.S. takes, it should be prioritizing the status quo, because that is what Taiwanese people want. We know based off an overwhelming amount of public opinion data that Taiwanese voters want the status quo, and do not want a change in Taiwan’s status. Even though that means living in an uncomfortable de facto independence without true recognized statehood, it allows Taiwan to continue to exist peacefully as a democracy with autonomy. 

Got a book to recommend? Tell me about it at [email protected].

Thanks to: Heidi Vogt, Paul McLeary, Joseph Gedeon, Maggie Miller, Camille Gijs and digital producers Tara Gnewikow and Fiona Lally.  Do you have tips? Chinese-language stories we might have missed? Would you like to contribute to China Watcher or comment on this week’s items? Email us at [email protected] and [email protected].

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