June madness for Senate, Supreme Court

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It’s Monday. Happy Pride Month, my friends!! ❤️🌈

In Today's issue:

• SCOTUS says ‘no’ to AR-15 ban case — for now
• Thune’s big test; GOP’s Medicaid problem
• What we know in Boulder, Colo., attack
• Ukraine launches sophisticated drone attack
• Jerome Powell gives afternoon remarks

🏛️️ NEWS THIS MORNING

This would be a big deal:

The Supreme Court declined to take up a case on whether Maryland’s AR-15 ban is constitutional, but Justice Brett Kavanaugh signaled the court may soon decide the constitutionality of banning the rifles.

How so?: Three justices voted “yes” to take up the case—one short of the number needed. Kavanaugh, who was not one of those “yes” votes, released a statement saying, “this Court should and presumably will address the AR-15 issue soon, in the next Term or two.”

Several appeals courts are weighing other states' bans. Kavanaugh signaled interest in a future case once the issue progresses further in lower courts.

💡 For context: “The constitutionality of such laws has become a flash point in the legal battles over gun control. The Supreme Court has issued multiple expansions of Second Amendment rights in recent years but has yet to settle how those rulings apply to AR-15 bans. Maryland is one of nine states that have banned the possession of AR-15s, the most popular civilian rifle in America. Maryland enacted its law in 2013 following the Sandy Hook Elementary School mass shooting.”

➤ PLUS — A BIG WIN FOR THE FOSSIL FUEL INDUSTRY:

The Supreme Court has reshaped how the federal government thinks about fossil fuel infrastructure, reports The Hill’s Rachel Frazin.

Read: ‘Supreme Court hands big win to fossil fuels, agency power’

➤ WHAT CASES ARE LEFT?:

We are waiting for the Supreme Court to release more opinions on cases dealing with birthright citizenship, age verification for porn sites and transition care for trans youth. 2025 Supreme Court case tracker

Check out more updates on cases this term in The Gavel, The Hill’s weekly courts newsletter.

⏱️ ON CAPITOL HILL

Ready, set, GO!:

The Senate is back in Washington today to hit the gas on President Trump’s legislative agenda. It’s a daunting battle to find the perfect balance that will appease each Republican faction within the House and Senate.

The first showdown: How will it be scored? The Senate parliamentarian is poised to determine whether the bill will add to the deficit. This would likely be Democrats’ best avenue to challenge parts of the bill — the parliamentarian is nonpartisan, after all. But Senate Republicans argue Budget Committee Chair Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) should get to score whether extending current tax cuts would add to the deficit.

Why is the bill score so important?: Extending Trump’s 2017 tax cuts is expensive. However, if Graham determines this is simply an extension of the “current policy,” it could be considered neutral. Republicans, who want to advance the legislation using a simple majority through the budget reconciliation process, could then potentially make these tax cuts permanent.

Can Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) pull this off? This will be his first big test.

The Hill’s Alexander Bolton has a helpful explainer on how this could all play out.

Medicaid, Medicaid, Medicaid:

If you want to see Capitol Hill Republicans flinch, just mention Medicaid.

House Republicans passed President Trump’s legislative agenda with massive cuts to the Medicaid health program. Now that the bill has moved to the other side of the Capitol, it’s become quite the sticking point.

What’s getting the most play: Independent projections show that the bill would cause millions of Americans to lose their health coverage.

Ernst steps in it: Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) has caught flak over a comment she made about Medicaid cuts and changes to the food stamp program that are part of President Trump’s legislative agenda.At a recent town hall, a constituent yelled that those cuts would cause people to die. “Well, we’re all going to die,” she yelled back. 📹 Watch the clip

The GOP senator later posted a response to the criticism. The video began sounding like an apology, but she quickly pivoted to doubling down on the controversial quote. She then made a sarcastic joke about the tooth fairy. Btw, she appears to be in a cemetery. 📹 Watch her snarky ‘apology’

FWIW — Speaker Johnson is pushing back on the Medicaid narrative: During a Sunday appearance on NBC’s “Meet the Press,” Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) pushed back on the projections that Republicans’ bill would cause 4.8 million Americans to lose their health coverage. He claims those people “will not lose their Medicaid unless they choose to do so,” referring to the new work requirement.

Oh, and btw: Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) argues the Trump bill does not cut spending enough.

➤ 2026 SENATE PREDICTIONS:

The Hill's Al Weaver, pulled together his early list of the 5 Senate seats that are most likely to flip in the 2026 midterms. Georgia and New Hampshire made the list.

JOIN US WEDNESDAY: The Hill's Invest in America summit will be held at 8 a.m. EDT in Washington, D.C., featuring titans from Washington and Wall Street for conversations on the future of tariffs, AI, investing, crypto & more.

🚓 OTHER NEWS

Horrible:

A man attacked a Boulder, Colo., crowd with a “makeshift flamethrower” and incendiary devices on Sunday in what the FBI is calling an “act of terror.” Eight people were injured.

The crowd was meeting for a peaceful gathering to call for the return of Israeli hostages who were taken by Hamas during the Oct. 7, 2023, attack on Israel. The suspect yelled, “Free Palestine,” according to an FBI special agent.

The injured victims’ ages range from 52 to 88. A friend told 9News that one of the victims was a Holocaust survivor. What we know about the attack

Ukraine had a big attack against Russia:

Ukraine attacked Russia over the weekend with a sophisticated drone attack that struck dozens of Russian strategic bombers.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said the attack had been in the works for more than a year and a half (!)

Timing: This happened right before planned peace talks in Istanbul. Reuters reports that today’s talks ended shortly after they began.  

COMING UP

The Senate is in. The House is back tomorrow. President Trump and Vice President Vance are lunching in Washington. (All times EST)

1 p.m. Trump and Vance have lunch together.

1 p.m. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks at a conference. 💻Livestream

3 p.m. The Senate meets.

5:30 p.m. A Senate cloture vote on a nomination. 📆Today’s agenda

6:30 p.m. Tom Llamas’s first day as the new host of “NBC Nightly News.”

🐝 INTERNET BUZZ

🍗 Celebrate: Today is National Rotisserie Chicken Day and National Rocky Road Day.

👒 ‘Downton Abbey,' the movie!: The first official trailer of the new film, “Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale” is out. The movie will be in theaters in September.📹 Watch the trailer

🌋 Getting traction — yikes: Italy's Mount Etna erupted on Monday, sending tourists running from the volcano. 📹 Watch

💳 Bar tabs are not for Gen Z: Gen Z prefers to close out after every single drink at the bar instead of keeping a tab open, according to a New York Times report. It’s a lot more work for bartenders, so they find this very annoying.

👋 AND FINALLY…

Because you made it this far, here’s a parrot with an incredible ability to deflect and change the subject of conversation.

I love hearing from you — send your feedback, tips and favorite cookie recipes 🍪 to cmartel@thehill.com. Check out more newsletters here. See you next time!

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