GOP chair counting on more voters than Dems next year. Can they flip a congressional seat?

The chairman of the Republican Party of Palm Beach County said he believes GOP voters will outnumber Democratic ones in next year’s midterm election as control of Capitol Hill will hang in the balance.

“I’m looking for November 2026. That’s going to be the key date,” said Carl Cascio, who took over leadership of the county party in early 2025.

According to the Palm Beach County Supervisor of Elections website, Democrats as of July 10 listed 329,122 voters to the Republicans’ 297,787, a difference of just 31,335. In October 2022, weeks ahead of the last midterm vote in Florida, Democrats outnumbered Republicans by 108,295, according to the Florida Division of Elections count at the time.

The gap in President Donald Trump’s adopted home county has narrowed for a variety of reasons, from purging inactive voters from the rolls to the migration of far more conservative voters to the county since the end of the COVID pandemic.

Those extra voters could be crucial not just to the county GOP but the national Republican Party as well. The GOP holds a slim majority in the U.S. House, and Republicans are eyeing two seats in Palm Beach County as potential changeovers next year.

In addition, the midterm ballot will include a special U.S. Senate election in Florida to fill the remaining two years in the seat Marco Rubio vacated when he became secretary of state. Gov. Ron DeSantis appointed Ashley Moody, the former state attorney general, to the position this year.

NPAs key to GOP strategy to overtake Democrats in Palm Beach County

Going forward, Cascio said the party will target flipping to the GOP those voters not signed up with a party, the no-political-affiliation electorate. The county supervisor’s website lists 284,656 NPAs.

“My biggest target is going to be NPAs,” Cascio said.

The chairman said he is confident the GOP’s pitch — being pro-small business and favorable to blue-collar voters and the “average family struggling to get by” — will be successful in stressing less government regulation and lower taxes.

Plus, there will be a specific, tailored message to the NPA voting bloc highlighting more choices among candidates.

“If they’re only left to the general election, then somebody has already made the choice for them on who they can choose to vote for,” said Cascio. “By going from NPA to Republican, you will have a bigger choice of candidates to draw from (during a primary) in order to get the person you want in office.”

Cascio believes, and voting results over the past decade suggest, that NPA voters have indeed favored Republican candidates. To win them over, Cascio said an overhaul of the county’s Republican committee structure will include a robust voter-registration group.

The party will start attending events, from gun to boat shows, seeking to register voters, and especially those who are currently independents.

“Now, it’s going to be literally boots on the ground,” he said. “We have to go to events where we think we have the best chance of attracting the most people to switch parties, or that maybe aren’t registered.”

Palm Beach County Republicans would love to flip this congressional seat

Cascio said the GOP would love to flip the Congressional District 23, a seat now held by Democratic U.S. Rep. Jared Moskowitz, or District 22, currently represented by Democratic U.S. Rep. Lois Frankel of West Palm Beach.

The widely watched Cook Political Report does list District 23 among 69 “competitive races” ahead of the 2026 election. It characterizes the seat as “lean Democratic.” Frankel’s District 22 seat is not on the list.

Cascio said the Moskowitz seat is “going to be a top target” for the Republican National Committee. The district overlaps into Broward, a blue county where in 2024 Moskowitz generated enough votes to overcome a deficit in the Palm Beach County portion.

The goal next year is to invert the 2024 result by helping the Republican candidate “overcome the deficit in Broward with enough of a buffer in Palm Beach County.”

Depending on how much success Democrats have in flipping red seats, especially in California, picking up another seat in Florida could be the key to the GOP keeping its House majority, Cascio said. He acknowledged Frankel would be a “tough out,” but insisted voter registration trends are making District 22 more competitive.

Again, NPA voters will be crucial, Cascio said, noting that is how the GOP in Miami-Dade County flipped seats to red in the past decade. Regardless of voter registration totals, get-out-the-vote efforts will decisive.

“This is no secret. I am sure the Democrats are going to try to do it,” Cascio said. “But we feel we have a message that more closely aligns with NPAs than the Democratic Party.”

He added: “We’ve got to carry the torch now. Turnout is going to be massively important for the Republicans in Palm Beach County to be able to win.”

Antonio Fins is a politics and business editor at The Palm Beach Post, part of the USA TODAY Florida Network. You can reach him at afins@pbpost.com. Help support our journalism. Subscribe today.

This article originally appeared on Palm Beach Post: GOP chair in Trump county eyes red majority, flip of Congress seat