The Court of International Trade, a little-known federal court, may have just given President Trump and Republicans the greatest gift imaginable, just as both parties begin focusing on the 2026 midterms.
Late Wednesday, the three-judge panel, including a Trump appointee, unanimously struck down Trump’s sweeping global tariffs, potentially removing a significant challenge for Republicans as they try to hold on to both chambers of Congress.
That said, the administration is risking squandering this gift.
The White House is appealing the court’s ruling, and was granted a temporary reprieve when a federal appeals court allowed the tariffs to remain in place during the appeals process.
And the administration is working on “Plan B” scenarios to keep the tariffs in effect via other legal routes, should they lose the appeal.
However, Trump would be doing congressional Republicans and himself a tremendous favor if he were just to accept the ruling and move on to other parts of his economic agenda.
To be sure, the court did leave some tariffs in place, such as those on steel, and it left the door open for Trump to use other avenues to impose new tariffs.
But by ruling that Trump had no power to introduce his broad “reciprocal tariffs” on virtually every country in the world, the court potentially removed the levies with the greatest impact.
Indeed, Trump’s tariffs and the chaos they’ve caused for financial markets, businesses and consumers pose a serious threat to Republicans in the midterms, a point polling data makes abundantly clear.
Less than four in 10 (37 percent) Americans approved of the tariffs, while nearly two-thirds (63 percent) disapproved, per Marquette University polling.
Likewise, by a roughly three-to-one ratio, independents, critical in midterm elections, were even more opposed, with only 26 percent approving of Trump’s tariff policies and 74 percent disapproving.
Moreover, the same poll showed that 58 percent of Americans, including 70 percent of independents, believe tariffs hurt the U.S. economy, with only 32 percent saying tariffs would benefit the economy.
Similarly, 74 percent of Americans broadly felt tariffs would increase prices, whereas only 8 percent thought they would decrease prices, according to Economist/YouGov polling.
In that same vein, pessimism over the impact of tariffs on the wider economy explains the considerable delta between Trump’s overall approval rating and how Americans feel about his handling of the economy.
According to the RealClearPolitics polling aggregator, Trump’s job approval is only slightly negative (48 percent approve vs. 50 percent disapprove), but on the economy, a former strength for the president, he is 11 points underwater (42 percent approve vs. 53 percent disapprove).
In fact, the unpopularity of tariffs has already begun impacting the GOP’s midterm chances.
A recent Fox News poll shows Democrats with a 7-point lead (49 percent to 42 percent) in the generic congressional vote, and a NewsNation survey shows a similar 5-point lead (45 percent to 40 percent).
This is despite Democrats struggling to unify around strong messaging or a viable alternative to Trump and the GOP.
For his part, Trump has done nothing to convince Americans about the potential benefits of tariffs. In fact, he often does the opposite, confirming the worst fears over rising prices and contradicting his own past statements on who actually pays for the tariffs.
Last month, Trump told reporters that Americans should content themselves with “two dolls instead of 30” and that those dolls may “cost a couple of bucks more.”
Further, when Walmart said they have to raise prices due to the import duties, Trump lashed out and demanded that the company “EAT THE TARIFFS,” a direct contradiction to his never-accurate claims that foreign companies pay the tariffs, not Americans.
Trump should heed the warnings of former President Jimmy Carter, who was widely ridiculed — and still is — for telling Americans to accept less for the sake of the greater good.
What’s more is that if the ruling stands, it would put an end to the constant whipsaw-like trade announcements coming out of the White House.
Aside from roiling financial markets, the on-again, off-again tariffs make it impossible for businesses to plan and invest, leading to slower economic growth and denting consumer confidence.
Within the span of just a few days last week, Trump announced 50 percent tariffs on the European Union and 25 percent on Apple, just to walk them back days later.
The erratic back-and-forth even gave rise to the “TACO trade” — short for “Trump Always Chickens Out” — hardly a positive for a president elected to provide strength and stability.
Not only has this made the administration look chaotic and rudderless, but it also makes Trump and Republicans as a whole look bad.
Plainly, if the tariffs are allowed to remain in effect, Democrats will have little difficulty tying Republicans to the turmoil and economy-suffocating policies coming out of the White House.
Or, as Karl Rove put it in the Wall Street Journal, “the president’s chaotic trade talk will badly damage Republicans in the midterms…Voters won’t blame foreign countries for higher prices. They’ll blame Donald Trump and his Republican Party.”
And yet, as happens so often, Trump may prove to be his own worst enemy by doubling down on efforts to radically remake the global economy.
In no uncertain terms, the White House should see this as a blessing in disguise and take the court’s ruling as a chance to recalibrate its approach.
Put another way, Trump would be wise not to look this gift horse in the mouth, lest he want a Democratic-controlled Congress for the final two years of his term.
Douglas E. Schoen and Carly Cooperman are pollsters and partners with the public opinion company Schoen Cooperman Research based in New York. They are co-authors of the book, “America: Unite or Die.”
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