Wheat futures slip after eight straight gains as USDA confirms bump in exports

U.S. wheat futures fell Friday for their first loss in nine sessions, while soybeans and corn edged lower following the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s monthly supply and demand report.

The USDA raised its forecast for global wheat production by ~1M metric tons to 783M million for the 2023-24 marketing year and revised its outlook for U.S. wheat exports 25M bushels higher, which was not seen as a surprise by traders.

U.S. wheat futures had been rising in reaction to the recent wave of Chinese export purchases, with traders anticipating the reduction in ending stocks forecast by the USDA in the latest WASDE report.

Wheat (W_1:COM) for March delivery ended -1.6% to $6.32 1/4 per bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade, while January soybeans (S_1:COM) settled -0.4% to $13.06 1/4 per bushel and March corn (C_1:COM) closed -0.3% to $4.86 3/4 a bushel.

ETFs: (NYSEARCA:WEAT), (NYSEARCA:SOYB), (NYSEARCA:CORN), (DBA), (MOO)

The higher export demand was not enough to boost CBOT futures, partly because higher export sales already were priced in, and a similar export increase for corn also was expected, according to Mike Zuzolo of Global Commodity Analytics.

The USDA also lowered its soybean forecast for 2023-24 global production by 1.5M metric tons to 398.9M metric tons due to lower production in Brazil, and raised Brazil’s soybean export forecast by 2M tons to 99.5M tons and left its U.S. export forecast unchanged at 47.76M tons.