Cyber Monday online shopping spree forecast to break record

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US consumers were spending their way to the biggest online shopping day ever on Monday, shelling out for products from Barbie dolls to electronics at the start of retailers’ holiday season.

Ecommerce sales were forecast to be at least $12bn on so-called Cyber Monday, when an array of vendors promote discounts online following Thanksgiving and Black Friday sales last week, according to Adobe Analytics.

Economists and investors are watching holiday sales as a gauge of the US economy after months of inflation and rising interest rates have raised the cost of living. Nearly 80 per cent of consumers were looking to “trade down” by swapping planned purchases for cheaper alternatives or forgoing them in their holiday shopping, a McKinsey study found.

More consumers are using “buy now, pay later” services to make purchases, with Adobe Analytics forecasting the $782mn spent through BNPL was up 18.8 per cent from last year. Over the month of November to Sunday, BNPL purchases had accounted for $7.3bn of online sales, up 14 per cent from last year. 

The estimated $12bn to $12.4bn spent online on Monday topped last year’s $11.3bn on the same day, according to Adobe Analytics. The rise was down to new demand and not simply higher prices, and in fact its estimate would have been even higher if the figure was adjusted for inflation, the data group said.

Online spending during Black Friday came in above projections at $9.8bn, up 7.5 per cent year on year, while on Thanksgiving it totalled $5.6bn, up 5.5 per cent, Adobe said. 

The annual rise in online purchases sharply outpaced sales growth at physical stores during the long holiday weekend. According to Mastercard SpendingPulse, which measures activity in stores and online across all forms of payment, US retail sales on Friday excluding automotive categories were up 2.5 per cent year on year, not adjusted for inflation.

RetailNext, another data company, reported a 2 per cent increase in foot traffic at stores on Black Friday.

Discounts offered on Monday ranged from electronics to furniture to toys, according to Adobe. In the toy category, sales of Mattel’s Barbie dolls have been especially strong since last summer’s release of the popular film Barbie. Other popular toy sales this holiday season include Lego, puzzles and card games, and gaming items such as the Nintendo Switch. 

Among the aggressive online markdowns offered on Monday, Amazon was discounting private-label apparel as much as 60 per cent, while Walmart slashed up to 60 per cent from prices of tech accessories such as movie projectors and gaming headsets.

“We think it’s going to be a strong season,” Beryl Tomay, Amazon’s vice-president of last-mile delivery and tech, told the Financial Times. Amazon’s US customers had purchased more than 1,000 items a second on Black Friday, led by beauty, home and kitchen products and toys, the company said.

Shares in ecommerce platform Shopify rose 4.9 per cent on Monday after it reported record-setting Black Friday sales of $4.1bn globally, a 22 per cent increase from a year ago.