Wisconsin tees up high stakes Supreme Court race with partisan control on the line

Wisconsin is bracing for a high-stakes state Supreme Court election that will determine its balance of power just months after President-elect Trump flipped the battleground state.

Dane County Judge Susan Crawford and former Attorney General Brad Schimel (R) are vying for retiring liberal Justice Ann Walsh Bradley’s seat on the high court, which currently has a 4-3 liberal tilt. Bradley’s departure brings the partisan balance to a 3-3 split.

Republicans are eager to net a seat on the court after losing a consequential Wisconsin Supreme Court race two years ago, handing Democrats control for the first time in 15 years.

Rusty Schultz, who’s worked for former Gov. Scott Walker (R) and Sen. Ron Johnson’s (R-Wis.) campaign, noted that “conservatives are starting to wake up to the importance of the court.”

“I think there was this, like, maybe sense of apprehension or just not necessarily understanding, because for so long, we pulled all three levers of government, right, and we kind of took that court for granted,” he explained. “And I think in 2023, after that loss, people started to wake up to that.”

Voters will be heading to the polls early next year to weigh which candidate should fill the vacancy on the state’s highest court. So far, Crawford and Schimel are the only declared candidates, though there could be late additions.

Though Wisconsin Supreme Court races are technically nonpartisan, both candidates have clearly leaned into issues that resonate with their Republican and Democrat bases.

Most voters know Schimel as a former Republican state attorney general, though he’s currently a Waukesha County Circuit Court judge. His website touts his time as Wisconsin attorney general — “the state’s Top Cop” as his campaign describes him — and his record on advocating for crime victims and his work on the opioid abuse.

“I watched in 2023 what happened in the last Supreme Court race, and I felt compelled to run,” Schimel told The Hill.

“We had a candidate for office who won promising how she would rule on cases, and the other — the other liberals on the court were applauding that. They were just wildly in favor of it,” he said, alluding to then-liberal candidate Janet Protasiewicz, who irked Republicans for saying she believed in a woman’s freedom to make their own choice over abortion and called the state map’s “rigged” in the 2023 race.

Protasiewicz never said how she would rule on any cases before her, though it didn’t quiet GOP criticism around her remarks.

Crawford’s campaign notes she represented Planned Parenthood of Wisconsin and protected voting and worker’s rights. She also leaned into the issue of crime, noting her background as a former assistant attorney general within the Wisconsin Department of Justice.

Sam Roecker, a consultant for Crawford’s campaign who also worked on Protasiewicz’s team in 2023, acknowledged that while the issues between the 2023 race and now might be similar, “at its heart though, this is still about do we want a court that’s fair and impartial in Wisconsin or do we want a court that acts more as a rubber stamp for a really extreme, right wing agenda?”

The race has shown early signs that the contest is turning personal.

Crawford’s campaign has already characterized Schimel as a “right-wing extremist.” She and Wisconsin Democrats targeted him over issues like abortion, noting he signed onto a Wisconsin Right to Life white paper in 2012 in which it argued that “Wisconsin unborn children will be best protected” by keeping the state’s 1849 abortion law rather than a personhood amendment if Roe v. Wade gets overturned.

“That was a long time ago. I did that when I was in a different role as a judge,” Schimel told The Hill. “I never would — I would never sign something like that because that would be improper in my role as a judicial officer.”

“I can't be more clear when I say that, as a justice on the Supreme Court, I am not running to undo the will of the people. Laws that are passed are the laws that are passed, and I'll respect that,” he said. “Unless they run afoul of the Constitution, I'll uphold the will of the people through those laws.”

Meanwhile, when Crawford announced her candidacy, Schimel suggested in a statement that the Dane County judge didn’t have Wisconsinites interests at heart.

“I've spent my career defending and upholding Wisconsin law and she's spent much of hers suing the State of Wisconsin,” he argued.

Roecker brushed off those attacks, saying that Crawford has been “fighting to protect rights and freedoms.”

She’s “been a prosecutor, she's been a judge, she's held criminals accountable. She's prosecuted violent offenders. I think that's — that's pretty clear,” Roecker said. “She’s also been an attorney and as an attorney, she fought to protect access to reproductive care. She fought for workers' rights.”

There are uncanny parallels between the 2023 Wisconsin Supreme Court race and next year’s: Both are determinative of partisan control on the state’s high court, and so far, the focus of this race appears to be focus on similar issues to that of the previous battle: Abortion and crime. The campaign this cycle has shown signs it could turn nasty, as it did two years ago.

Wisconsin’s last state Supreme Court race shattered a record for spending in a state judicial election, and observers expect the same to happen by next year.

So much money was spent in last cycle’s race particularly because the Badger State is one of seven battleground states, and the opportunity to tilt partisan control on one of those high courts is few and far between. Some of the court’s most consequential rulings in recent years have included tossing out challenges to the 2020 election results in the state, ordering new maps created for the state legislature and allowing drop boxes to be used during the 2024 election.

The court is expected to issue a decision over a case on the state’s 1849 abortion law that bars nearly all abortions.

Howard Schweber, professor of political science and legal studies at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, explained that some of the issues worth keeping an eye on are abortion, elections, Act 10 — Walker-era legislation that curtailed collective bargaining rights for many public employees — redistricting and religious freedom.

Schweber suggested that if Schimel wins, it’s likely that the court could see another lawsuit again over the state legislature maps. He also expected that a conservative majority would be friendlier toward religious organizations and other entities “kind of following the Roberts Court in breaking down what have been traditional barriers between church and state.”

“If Crawford wins, I expect to see the Wisconsin Supreme Court do what some other state courts have done, which is to say, ‘well, the U.S. Supreme Court can say whatever it wants about the U.S. Constitution, but under the Wisconsin constitution, we think there's a separate, independent principle of separation of church and state,’ and then develop doctrines from there,” he explained.

Schweber also noted that if Crawford won, it could encourage Democrats to challenge Act 10 constitutionally. Crawford previously represented the teacher’s union in Madison during their lawsuit over Act 10.

While Trump won the state earlier this month, Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) survived a competitive Senate reelection bid, raising questions around how both parties are parsing through the election night results heading into the judicial election.

Democrats in the Badger State say there’s reasons to be optimistic.

“There was much written at the time about the vaunted Scott Walker machine that won so many races for so many years,” said Democratic strategist Thad Nation. “That's gone. I mean, it’s just completely and utterly gone in the Wisconsin landscape and has been replaced by state Democratic Party's turnout efforts that just keep getting better and better and better.”

Republicans say they have reason to feel good heading into next year, too. Wisconsin GOP chair Brian Schimming noted they’ve kept on staff that they normally would not have at this point. Republicans, too, may also get to avoid a nasty primary battle.

“I think our organization is very hot,” Schimming said, adding Wisconsinites are “enthused” about Schimel and he’s already been elected statewide.

“I think folks nationally on both sides recognize that it's not just a court seat, it'll be the gift that keeps on giving for three years,” he chuckled, adding “because it won't be until 2028 until conservatives get another opportunity on this court.”