Why 2024 Bordeaux Futures May Be the Best Deal in Years

News hit the wine world on May 2 that Château Lafite Rothschild, one of the five great First Growths of Bordeaux, announced that the price for its first release of the 2024 vintage would be 27% lower than that of 2023 (€288 per bottle, ex-négociant). That’s substantial; another way to look at it is that it is the lowest price for this wine since 2014. 

How does this affect wine buyers, particularly Bordeaux lovers? Of course, not everyone buys first-growth Bordeaux. The 2022 vintage of Lafite Rothschild, which is currently on shelves, runs an average price of $800 a bottle, which is not exactly a Wednesday night pour for anyone other than billionaires. But the futures prices of the top Châteaux largely define the market for the vintage in many ways.

Bordeaux is unusual in that its wines are often sold as “futures.” The 2024s, for example, will not arrive in stores until late 2026 or early 2027. In theory, this system allows early buyers to pay for the wine at a lower price than it will ultimately retail for. Bordeaux is also distinctive in that prices, at least for wines sold through the négociant system (most of them), fluctuate according to the vintage and the economic climate. This is very different from, say, Napa Valley, where a winery’s Cabernet will typically maintain the same price from vintage to vintage.

Other châteaux have followed Lafite’s lead. Château Angelus, one of the superstars of Saint-Émilion, is approximately 31% lower than last year (it was announced on the same day). On May 6, Cheval-Blanc was released at 28.1% less; Gruaud-Larose, the Saint-Julien Second Growth, is 27.9% lower than the starting price of 2023. That marks the beginning of what is likely to be a long list.

For anyone buying wine, is this a good thing? A bad thing? A non-thing? 

It’s certainly not entirely unexpected. The 2024 vintage was chilly and often rainy. As Michele Weiss, senior buyer for Zachy’s in New York, one of the country’s most renowned fine wine retailers and a major player in Bordeaux futures, says, “Even before the wine critics published scores, talk and rumors about rain and mildew in 2024 were affecting price.” Yet the year is hardly a disaster, and, by all accounts, the best wines are excellent. 

What else accounts for the dropping prices? “Facing a challenging global landscape, Château Angelus has made a bold move by significantly reducing the price of its 2024 vintage,” says Yves de Launay, executive vice president of the Americas for Château Angelus. “This strategic decision is intended to send a clear message of support to the entire market ecosystem — from négociants to loyal customers. By taking this step, the estate aims to ensure wider accessibility to Angelus 2024, a wine that is already being hailed for its great potential.”

Perhaps there’s a bit of positive spin in that comment, but it’s also not inaccurate: There is a challenging global landscape for wine currently, and it’s a challenging vintage on top of that. And making one’s wines more affordable and thus more widely available is a smart move in a tough market.

Also, top Bordeaux prices have been ambitiously high for some time. As Zachy’s Weiss says, “This was a long time coming as well. 2022 is a great vintage, but the wines are expensive. 2023 is good, but not the same benchmark status as 2022, and the wines were still quite expensive. And there’s the crazy exchange rate right now.” Additionally, the U.S. tariffs on E.U. goods are certainly playing a role, especially as the U.S. recently overtook China as Bordeaux’s top export market.

Still, for consumers, this can translate to very good Bordeaux for less money. Weiss says, “I think it’s a good thing for buyers. I mean, obviously the prices are lower.” She adds, regarding buying Bordeaux en primeur, “You haven’t really seen these prices since 2014. And when you look at that comparison, the 2014s in the market have come up in value. So the message is possibly, you’re getting a great value, and prices will go up.”

She adds, though, that the crucial aspect of a vintage like 2024 is choosing carefully. “It’s not like 2016 or maybe 2022 where you can just dive in.” 

This applies to more affordable Bordeaux as well as the top of the heap, and it’s worth noting that the best Bordeaux producers in the $40 to $75 range often create exceptional red wines suitable for both immediate enjoyment and cellaring. You don’t need to spend a fortune to get excellent Bordeaux.

But what to buy? If you have the cash for Angelus, go for it. However, Weiss points out, “Château Laroque in St. Emilion, for example, is a super value this vintage. David Suire [the estate manager] has been doing amazingly well. I wouldn’t say that it’s my favorite and none of the others are, but that’s definitely one 2024 highlight for me.” 

And the futures price on that wine? Not released yet — so stay tuned.