The U.S.’s military intervention in Iran could roil next year’s House and Senate races in Michigan, a key battleground state that saw Democratic tensions play out last cycle over the war in Gaza.
Democratic candidates in particular there will be forced to navigate a political minefield when it comes to President Trump’s involvement in Iran, a conflict that is linked to Israel’s ongoing war in Gaza, which proved to be a major liability for Michigan Democrats during last year’s election.
But the conflict also raises questions for Republicans, who will need to win over Arab, Muslim and Jewish Americans statewide while navigating the Trump administration’s position on the broader conflict.
“The races next year should be really interesting, because in some ways, they're going to be a referendum on some of the key questions of who the Democratic Party is and who it will become,” said Abbas Alawieh, a senior Democratic strategist who was one of the leaders of the Uncommitted Movement last year, which sought to pressure then-President Biden over his stance on the war in Gaza.
That conflict became a flashpoint during the 2024 election, nowhere more so than in Michigan, which has a Jewish population of more than 100,000 while the Arab and Muslim American population is estimated to be about several hundred thousand in the state.
“The Middle Eastern vote, the Muslim vote in particular, has been moving slightly to the right over the last couple of elections and clearly Trump capitalized on it,” said Jason Cabel Roe, a Michigan-based Republican strategist.
“It remains to be seen that Muslim Americans, while they might not love Israel and may even hate Israel, they don’t necessarily love Iran,” he added. “And I do think that everyone recognizes that Iran has been for nearly 50 years the primary disruptive force in the region.”
The Uncommitted Movement — in which Arab, Muslim and progressive voters urged Democrats to vote “uncommitted” in the primary against Biden — notably started out in the Midwestern state, and then later spread across the country, in reaction to the war.
After replacing Biden on the ticket, Vice President Kamala Harris lost the state by more than 1 point, fairing only better in Wisconsin among the seven battleground states.
The Arab and Muslim “community here in Michigan … can no longer be taken for granted as just lining up with the Democratic candidate,” Alawieh said. “I think Democrats are going to have to work harder for that vote.”
The Trump administration’s decision to bomb several nuclear facilities in Iran last week has only magnified the issue heading into 2026, with Trump on Friday leaving open the possibility to further strikes.
Some members of Michigan’s Arab and Muslim communities who spoke with The Hill believe that conflict could impact key elections or be an important issue next year again, particularly in the Senate race. The Democratic primary has positioned Rep. Haley Stevens (Mich.), a pro-Israel Democrat who’s previously received backing from the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), against state Sen. Mallory McMorrow and former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed.
Stevens noted the need for congressional approval for the strikes and demanded that the administration brief Congress on the matter.
“Like most Michiganders, I believe the last thing our country needs is to be involved in another foreign war,” Stevens said. “I intend to use my power as a member of Congress to ensure that this president and this administration do not continue to abuse the system of checks and balances we have in this country.”
McMorrow said in her own statement following the strikes that the U.S. “cannot be dragged back into a forever war.”
“The U.S. could have prevented Iran from developing a nuclear weapon through diplomacy. Trump’s actions have now put U.S. troops in danger and made us all less safe,” McMorrow said.
In an interview with The Hill, El-Sayed equated the issue of foreign intervention to affordability.
“You don’t have to be from the Middle East, you have to be from Michigan to know that this is a waste of taxpayer dollars,” El-Sayed said. “This seems totally removed from the affordability crisis that they’re living through. It doesn’t increase the access that they have to affordable groceries or reduce the price of eggs.”
“I don't think everyday folks are asking what’s Iran up to; I think they’re asking am I going to be able to afford my life tomorrow?”
Michigan GOP Senate candidate and former Rep. Mike Rogers (Mich.) said in an interview that members of the state’s Middle Eastern community he has spoken to see the endgame when it comes to Trump’s strikes on Iran.
“What I’m sensing is nobody likes it, the fact that they had to do it, but they all support the outcome because they believe that this is going to get us one step closer to peace,” said Rogers, who has a law enforcement and intelligence background.
“People are nervous,” he continued. “They don’t want to see a bigger, wider-spread war. Neither does the president, and I think they’re with him on that.”
Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Mich.), who told reporters Thursday that he was “seriously exploring” a Senate bid himself, suggested Saudi Arabia and other nations along the Persian Gulf privately “are very nervous about a nuclear Iran as well.”
In addition to the Senate race, Alawieh suggested the issue could play out in the primary for Stevens’s House seat, Rep. John James’s (R-Mich.) seat and in the Democratic primary between Rep. Shri Thanedar (Mich.) and state Rep. Donavan McKinney, who’s backed by progressives.
“Very important,” said Osama Siblani, publisher of The Arab American News, when asked how candidates’ positions on the military intervention in Iran and the broader global conflict would affect how he votes next year. “Because, remember, we are a community that has relatives overseas.”
At the same time, Siblani — who declined to endorse Trump or Harris last cycle — noted domestic issues were also extremely important to him.
Why are Trump and Republicans “doing what they're doing in the … campuses, arresting people, deporting them, not giving them the due process?” Siblani asked.
“The country that I came to in 1976 is not the same country that I live in today,” he added.
One national Republican strategist said the Israel-Hamas war would likely play a bigger role in the state’s campaign discourse than Iran’s conflict with Israel.
“It’s always going to be an issue when the Middle East comes up regarding politics,” the strategist said. “The bigger issue will still continue to be more of Israel’s war eliminating Hamas.”
While a global conflict is looming over the country, some lawmakers caution it’s too soon to know how the U.S. intervention in Iran could impact Michigan next year or express ambivalence that it will be as much of a lightning-rod issue.
“Let's see how it all plays out. We haven't even gotten the facts,” Rep. Debbie Dingell (D-Mich.) said Tuesday.
Michigan state Rep. Noah Arbit (D), who founded the Michigan Democratic Jewish Caucus, was not convinced it would be a major issue next year. He suggested what would motivate voters would be anticipated cuts to Medicaid from Trump’s megabill and tax cuts that wealthy Americans would benefit off of.
Rogers noted that if the conflict were to break down into a broader war and enflame other parts of the Middle East “then it becomes something very different.”
But the Michigan Republican is betting most voters will side with Trump over the issue when it’s over.
“I just don’t see it happening,” he said. “I think this is going to be a huge positive.”
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