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The ICR Conference runs in Orlando, Florida from January 8-10. The retail sector conference is an invite-only event open to institutional investors, private equity professionals, presenting companies, select media, and equity research analysts. ICR is one of the bigger retail sector conferences of the year because it can lead to share price movement as it typically features a flurry of guidance updates for the key holiday quarter. The general expectation this year is that most companies will preannounce Q4 results positively, but also sound cautious about the setup for 2024 due to consumer spending concerns. Some of the tailwinds seen for the new year in the retail sector include lean inventories, freight tailwinds, and easing inflation.
The update from Lululemon (LULU) may be of the closest watched of the bunch after Nike’s (NKE) earnings report issued in December set a gloomy tone for the retail sector. Working in the Swoosh’s favor, recent channel checks have been strong for Nike (NKE) and markdown activity has been limited. However, Lululemon (LULU) has a three-year streak of seeing its share price decline immediately after its ICR spotlight.
Ahead of ICR, JPMorgan said a majority of companies across its coverage universe are tracking to meet or beat the current Q4 consensus estimates. The firm tipped Lululemon Athletica (LULU), Savers Value Village (SVV), Urban Outfitters (URBN), and Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) to be outperformers. Meanwhile, Bank of America expects Crocs (CROX) to surprise to the upside when it pre-announces Q4 results. Jefferies said it is most bullish on SharkNinja (SN), due to its strong innovation pipeline and opportunity for both significant category and geographic expansion, and Five Below (FIVE), due to its strong value offering. BTIG has its eyes on some of the potential turnaround stories such as Warby Parker (WRBY) and Revolve Group (RVLV). For its part, Baird pointed to Dutch Bros. (BROS) as a company that could issue Q4 guidance ahead of consensus expectations. Several firms think Deckers Outdoor (DECK) may impress investors and analysts with its presentation.
Of note, European Wax Center (EWCZ), Victoria’s Secret (VSCO), and Boot Barn (BOOT) all saw double-digit rallies after their ICR presentations last year dazzled investors. Torrid Holdings (CURV) heads into ICR with its Seeking Alpha Quant Rating flashing Strong Buy. Walmart (WMT) is sending some executives to present at ICR. The retail giant has a positive trend of seeing share price gains in four of the last five years after its ICR update.
Other companies due to present at the ICR Conference include Purple Innovation (PRPL), Five Below (FIVE), a.k.a. Brands (AKA), On Holding (ONON), BARK (BARK), Aurora Cannabis (ACB), Jack in the Box (JACK), Xponential Fitness (XPOF), Wolverine World Wide (WWW), Urban Outfitters (URBN), Duckhorn Portfolio (NAPA), Solo Brands (DTC), Rush Street Interactive (RSI), Portillo’s (PTLO), Dave & Buster’s Entertainment (PLAY), Planet Fitness (PNT), Freshpet (FRPT), Dutch Bros (BROS), Domino’s Pizza (DPZ), Crocs (CROX), Darden Restaurants (DRI), and Beyond Meat (BYND).
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