Germany has long been considered a global leader on climate change and the clean energy transition. In its landmark Climate Action Law adopted in December 2023, the country aimed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 65% by 2030 and reach climate neutrality by 2045, along with setting annual emission budgets for various sectors until 2030.
Former chancellor Angela Merkel was often referred to as the “climate chancellor” for her efforts to tackle emission reduction on the international level. And climate was an important issue for voters choosing her replacement in the 2021 German election.
But as Germans prepare to head to the polls on Feb. 23 for a snap election, climate is not quite as important a factor as it used to be, says Marc Weissgerber, executive director of climate think tank E3G. “”From the voter's perspective, the priority is not as big anymore,” he says.
According to a January survey by Deutschlandtrend, immigration and the economy were cited as the biggest concerns for voters, with only 13% of those surveyed mentioning environmental and climate protection—similar to the top concerns in the U.S. elections last fall.
Resetting priorities
Reflecting this shift in public opinion, politicians are turning away from climate too. On the far right, there is the Alternative fuer Deutschland (AfD), which is second in national polls. It has questioned the legitimacy of climate change and, much like President Trump on this side of the Atlantic, has called for Germany to withdraw from the Paris Climate Accords.
But the AfD, whilst pre-election surveys suggest it could perform well, trails the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), whose leader Friedrich Merz could end up as the German chancellor, according to polls. And Merz, although less vehemently anti-climate than the AfD, has nonetheless promised to move away from previous governments' environmentally-focused policies, which aimed to use climate spending as a way to boost the economy. Instead, he wants to prioritize the country’s economic and industrial strength.
While on the campaign trail, he said that the economic policy of recent years had been geared “almost exclusively toward climate protection,” according to Politico. “I want to say it clearly as I mean it: We will and we must change that.”
Analysts say Merz’s comments reflect how the country’s green energy goals are increasingly seen as out of step with goals to boost economic growth. Germany’s manufacturing industry, for example, which has propelled its economy for decades, is on the decline.
“Climate action is taking a back seat compared to industrial action, as Germany pushes to reposition its economic and industrial model,” says Olivia Lazard, senior research fellow at Carnegie Europe. “The prices of energy and material consumption have risen in Germany, which creates a lot of economic anxiety and political economic polarization.”
A costly transition
Behind the shift is a reality that politicians in several countries have been grappling with: the adoption of green energy has come at a cost for Germany that many now see as too high.
In April 2024, Germany’s Federal Network Agency, which regulates the country’s energy supply networks, announced that the cost of the country’s transition to renewable energy, an estimated 450 billion euros ($498.4 billion USD), would be passed on to consumers through their energy bills. This comes as Germans continue to pay high prices for fossil fuels in the wake of Russia’s war on Ukraine—as of last fall, German households were paying 74% more for gas than before the war.
And natural gas— which was meant to be a bridge towards decarbonization given that it produces less CO2 than coal or oil— was harder to access. “It sort of sent the German narrative and the political mobilization and economic mobilization for the climate fight into disarray, not out of unwillingness to do so, but out of difficulty from an industrial and economic capacity,” says Lazar.
As a result, the green transition has been losing favor with voters—many of whom are feeling pinched by the rising cost of living. “They have taken an aggressive stance to move away [from fossil fuels], but it's not always proven cost effective, and cost for most people is the key.” says Robert Orttung, a professor of sustainability and international affairs at the George Washington University.
Beyond Berlin
The possibility of a change in the German government’s priorities matters well beyond Berlin, with experts warning the impact could be felt globally.
Germany has the largest economy in Europe and has, in past years, more than exceeded its climate financing goals for poorer countries.
Now, with the U.S. pulling out of the Paris Accords and rolling back climate initiatives under the Trump administration, Germany could establish itself as a leader on the climate front. But if it steps back as well, the repercussions could be felt across Europe. “It would certainly have a huge impact if Germany falters,” Lazzard says.
Take for example what is one of the world’s key climate initiatives: the so-called Loss and Damage fund, established during the 2022 climate summit in Egypt, known as COP27, to help lower-income countries recover from natural disasters.
A key priority of last year’s annual climate summit, COP29, was to get wealthy nations to commit more money to support the fund. Germany pledged 94 million Euros ($100 million USD) to the fund in Nov. 2023, but the total $700 million put forward by wealthy nations by the end of COP29 “doesn’t come close” to meeting demand, according to U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres. With the Trump Administration pulling back from funding climate initiatives, other high-income countries might be tasked with filling in—though many are uninclined to do so as they face down the same budgetary and populist pressures as Germany.
“Whether the Germans and the Europeans in general are willing to step up and really start to pay more for this kind of policy is going to be a big question mark,” says Orttung.
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