For over 150 years, Russia ruled the South Caucasus, the mountainous region between Europe and Asia, through exploitation, domination and a colonialist divide-and-conquer policy. Moscow’s most recent pressure-point has been the conflict over the Armenia-backed separatist Karabakh, where Russia both fueled the conflict and acted as a mediator.
Now, Armenia and Azerbaijan are setting clear boundaries — and America has a historic opening to help them.
Relations between Russia and Azerbaijan have been in a freefall after Russian police allegedly tortured to death two Azerbaijani citizens amid a greater crackdown on ethnic Azerbaijani in the industrial city of Yekaterinburg. Azerbaijan authorities said the killings were “ethnically motivated,” and they likely were.
In response, Azerbaijan arrested the chief and managing editors of the Russian state media outlet Sputnik, accusing them of working with Russian intelligence. Baku then arrested eight more Russian citizens on charges of drug trafficking and cybercrime.
This latest escalation comes amid tensions between the two countries that have simmered since December, when Moscow shot down an Azerbaijani civilian plane, killing 38. Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev demanded a public apology and compensation, but Moscow initially ignored him. This set in motion a spiraling escalation that included the ordered closing of Russian state media and cultural centers in Azerbaijan and a massive cyberattack against Azerbaijani state media.
For several years, a conflict has also been brewing in neighboring Armenia as well. Right before the killing of the two Azerbaijanis, Armenia ditched a meeting of the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization, while simultaneously announcing it was entering discussions over defense cooperation with the European Union. Although Yerevan still depends on Russia economically and militarily, it has taken many steps to diversify relations, including with Iran, India and others.
Such open defiance from both countries would have been unimaginable just five years ago. However, two events opened the door for the fall of Russian influence in the South Caucasus: the retaking of Karabakh by Azerbaijan and the war in Ukraine.
For almost 30 years, Russia used the conflict over the Armenia-backed separatist territory of Karabakh to maintain leverage over both countries. Moscow used similar strategies in the post-Soviet republics of Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia by using the support for separatism to pressure all three. But in the Karabakh, Russia pressured both Armenia and Azerbaijan simultaneously.
After successful Azerbaijani operations to retake Karabakh in 2020 and 2023, Russia lost its primary leverage. And as Russia was increasingly bogged down in Ukraine, it did not have the same capacity to influence either country.
By using such a “divide and conquer” strategy to keep Azerbaijan and Armenia within its sphere of influence, Russia caused resentment in both. Now, it may be bringing both sides together.
In the midst of tensions, the UK-based outlet Middle East Eye reports that Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Aliyev plan to meet in Dubai to further discuss a peace agreement.
As the situation further develops, the U.S. should carefully seek to support both partners without aggravating tensions. The key would be to contrast itself with Russia as a benefactor that does not seek to bully its partners.
There are two steps that Washington can take to increase its influence in the region that would not lead to escalations.
The first is to invest in Pashinyan’s Crossroads for Peace initiative, a geopolitical strategy to incorporate Armenia into the Middle Corridor through infrastructure development, economic integration and peace diplomacy with Azerbaijan and Turkey. By investing in the project, Washington would further build out the Middle Corridor, which would allow the transit of Asian goods to Europe while bypassing Russia and Iran, and help Armenia become less dependent on Moscow.
The second step would be to pursue trilateral defense cooperation with Azerbaijan and Israel, a strategy proposed by high-ranking Israeli parliamentarians and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Such cooperation should be less about deterring Russia (which likely does not wish to strike Azerbaijan) and more about deterring the less predictable Iran. Officials and state media in Tehran have waged information warfare against Baku, accusing it of taking part in Israel’s Operation Rising Lion last month by recruiting ethnic Azerbaijanis as spies as well as letting Israel use its territory to carry out strikes.
Likewise, partnership with Armenia would come at a crucial time. As longtime regional observer Onnik Krekorian noted, Armenia is “close to the brink.” Pashinyan faces internal threats from a Russian-backed church and politicians that he has accused of planning a coup. And Armenian reliance on Russian energy remains a crucial vulnerability — Armenia imports 83 percent of its gas and 80 percent of its oil from Moscow.
Moscow’s decline opens the door — not for new hegemons or a new front, but for new partnerships built on respect for the region’s sovereignty.
Joseph Epstein is director of the Turan Research Center, a nonpartisan research program at the Yorktown Institute focused on the Turkic and Persian worlds.
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