Rishi Sunak’s smoking and vaping ban will pass and endure despite rightwing rebellion

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Good morning. Rishi Sunak will push ahead with plans to phase out smoking by preventing younger generations from ever being able to buy a traditional cigarette, and by placing further restrictions on vapes.

Several of you have asked me two questions: will these measures get past the House of Commons, and how enduring will they be? The answers are “yes” and “very”. Some longer thoughts on that below.

Close but no cigar

Rishi Sunak’s combined moves on smoking are a big deal for any number of reasons. The first is that they will have a significant impact on how many people in the UK smoke or vape.

The second is that the policies explicitly argue that, essentially, there is no good way to smoke and it is therefore the business of the British state to stop you, whether through banning those aged 15 and under from ever lighting a cigarette or curtailing the ability of vape manufacturers to market themselves to you. Disposable vapes are to be banned in the UK and new powers will be introduced to restrict vape flavours and require plain packaging as part of an attempt to make sure the products do not appeal to children.

Given that the median UK voter is very fond of bans, I think it is unlikely, to put it mildly, that these changes will ever be reversed by a future government. Certainly they are not going to be overturned by a Labour administration: on the whole, Labour MPs are much more supportive of these measures than Conservative counterparts. (If you want to get a Labour MP to say something nice about the prime minister, ask them what they think of his anti-smoking measures.)

The depth of support for these policies on the opposition benches is one reason why they will a) pass into law and b) come with the risk of a large Tory rebellion. It’s a free hit in lots of ways if you are a Conservative MP who wants to show a bit of libertarian leg.

But regardless, these measures will overcome the opposition and endure. Don’t bet on either libertarian Conservatives or liberal Labour MPs having the numbers or influence to turn around what will almost certainly be Sunak’s most lasting legacy on the UK.

Now try this

I had a really lovely weekend: I had a friend’s birthday, a lovely meal, but the easiest part to replicate, which you absolutely should, is that I saw American Fiction in preview. It’s out on general release this coming Friday and it really is an excellent film: a funny and well-observed take on literary life from a minority perspective that has plenty for everyone to enjoy. (I also very much enjoyed Diana Evans’ essay on it in the FT Weekend, which can be read equally well before or after watching the film or reading the book on which it is based.)

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