The Republican House majority could be in jeopardy before the 2026 election cycle even begins. The battle is unfolding now in Wisconsin, where, on April 1, voters will head to the polls for a state Supreme Court race with massive national implications.
The Republicans are currently clinging to a razor-thin 218-215 House majority. A liberal-controlled Wisconsin Supreme Court could strike down the state’s congressional map, costing Republicans two seats and potentially flipping control of the House.
Republicans already dropped this ball once in 2023, when the conservative candidate for Supreme Court was outspent more than five-to-one and got crushed by 11 points. Democrats flooded Wisconsin with mad money from all over the country, while most national Republicans were asleep at the switch.
Unless Republicans wake up, they are destined to repeat history just two short years later.
Although Wisconsin’s judicial elections are technically non-partisan, they function as fiercely partisan contests, with candidates staking out clear positions on key issues such as crime, abortion, voter ID and taxation.
This year’s Democratic-backed candidate, Susan Crawford, a circuit court judge in deep-blue Dane County (home to Madison), is already making her strategy clear: hammer her conservative opponent, former Wisconsin Attorney General Brad Schimel, on abortion while fundraising on the promise that a win would help Democrats redraw the state’s congressional districts.
She has wasted no time launching attacks and blasting out fundraising emails explicitly stating that if she prevails, she will shift the court’s focus to delivering Democrats two additional U.S. House seats.
National Republicans and donors need to take this race seriously. It is the first major election since President Trump’s victory in November, and the media are watching closely, eager to weaponize any Republican failure.
If the Wisconsin Supreme Court retains its current liberal majority, expect the left-wing headline writers to have a field day: “Wisconsin Rejects MAGA!” “Republicans Fumble, Again!” “Trump’s Grip on Wisconsin Slips!” The liberal media have been searching for a shred of good news, and Republicans losing this election would fit the bill.
A recent survey from OnMessage Inc. confirms that this is a winnable race. The statewide survey of likely April general election voters showed conservative-aligned Schimel and liberal-aligned Crawford deadlocked at 38 percent each. Republicans can win, but they are guaranteed to lose if they get outspent like they did in 2023.
If resources come into the state, they must be used to inform the 1.7 million Trump voters from November 2024 that there is an election on April Fools Day, and it is no joke. Right now, though, the money isn’t there, because Republican donors don’t seem to care. The only major-dollar Republican activist who has even noticed this race is ever forward-looking Elon Musk, who is reportedly spending money through his super PAC to help the conservative candidate. It is a start, but other Republican donors from all over the country need to “ride to the sound of the guns” and engage to match the Democrats' onslaught that’s already begun.
Beyond the national implications for Trump and the Republicans, Crawford’s judicial record is deeply troubling. As a circuit court judge, she repeatedly released violent criminals early, including individuals who had shot people, committed domestic abuse, and even raped children. This is not someone who deserves a promotion.
She also explicitly favors removing Voter ID requirements and promotes increasing taxes. Electing her to Wisconsin’s highest court would constitute a direct threat to Republican control of Congress, public safety in Wisconsin and sanity in general.
Curt Anderson is a veteran of the Reagan White House, former political director of the RNC and a founder of OnMessage Inc., a Republican advertising and polling firm. Sam Kay is a Pollster at OnMessage Inc.
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