Q3 crude oil price outlook raised at Morgan Stanley on rising geopolitical risk

Crude oil futures closed with a second straight loss Tuesday, taking a sliver of profits after hitting nearly six-month highs sparked by geopolitical risks and tight supply.

Talks for a ceasefire in the Gaza war continued, but oil’s losses were limited following reports that Israel and Hamas are still far from an agreement.

Citing rising geopolitical risks, Morgan Stanley analysts raised their Brent crude price forecast for Q2 by $4.50/bbl to $92 and for Q3 by $4/bbl to $94.

The bank said it sees tightness in Q2 and Q3 with OPEC supply restraints, some downside to Russia production, and a seasonal upswing in demand ahead.

Its assessment of market fundamentals remains the same, but “when it comes to geopolitical risk, however, even small probabilities can add several dollars to oil prices,” according to Morgan Stanley analysts including Martijn Rats.

Spot crude could hit $100/bbl this year if OPEC+ maintains its production discipline and continues to withhold crude from the global markets, Vitol CEO Russell Hardy said.

In a supply constrained market with oil consumption set to grow by 1.9M bbl/day in 2024, a similar level to last year, oil at “$80-$100 feels a sensible range for the market given the OPEC control of inventories around the world,” Hardy told the Financial Times Commodities Global Summit in Switzerland.

Front-month Nymex crude (CL1:COM) for May delivery finished -1.4% to $85.23/bbl, and front-month June Brent crude (CO1:COM) closed -1% to $89.42/bbl.

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The U.S. Energy Information Administration raised its average price estimate for Brent crude this year to $89/bbl from $87, which it said “reflects our expectation of strong global oil inventory draws during this quarter and ongoing geopolitical risks,” adding that it forecasts an average $90/bbl for Brent in Q2.

Extended OPEC+ output cuts “add to upward price pressure right at a time of the year when oil demand typically increases because of the spring and summer driving seasons in the Northern Hemisphere,” the EIA said.