Orange Juice Prices Are About to Surge Even More — and Trump’s Tariffs Aren’t Helping

Everything is getting more expensive — Including your favorite morning juice. 

In mid-2024, Food & Wine alerted readers about the increasing cost of orange juice due to ongoing environmental factors. The price of a 12-ounce bottle has already risen from $2.30 in 2020 to nearly double that at $4.50 in January, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Now, with President Donald Trump's new tariffs in effect, the outlook for this vitamin C-rich beverage and the entire industry surrounding it looks even bleaker. Here's what you need to know about the escalating cost of orange juice. 

How the environment is affecting orange juice pricing

As Food & Wine previously reported, in the 2024–2025 study by Fundecitrus, a research association in Brazil formed by the nation's citrus growers and manufacturers, the orange forecast is, quite bluntly, depressing. According to the report, citrus production in the South American nation — the leading producer of oranges in the world — is down due to citrus greening, pests, and severe drought. 

“The data shows that, once again, the climate emerges as the main cause of the significant drop in production,” the findings report. “Since June 2023, the citrus belt has been affected by the El Niño phenomenon, classified by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) as one of the five most intense ever recorded.” The last El Niño event caused an 18% drop in production. 

However, it's not just Brazil that's been affected. Florida, a state beloved for its oranges, is also seeing far lower yields. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) reported it's forecasting U.S. production to be down 10% to 2.2 million tons for the 24/25 season, which is  “the lowest level in 88 years.” This, the USDA added, is due to “unfavorable weather and continuing disease problems, especially citrus greening in Florida.” In Florida alone, production is expected to dip 33%. This is on top of some already abysmal statistics. According to the American Farm Bureau Federation orange production in Florida has dropped 90% since 2005, going from 150 million boxes to 16 million boxes in 2023. It's also decimated the industry there, with the number of citrus growers decreasing in Florida by 62% from 2002 to 2017.

Some Florida farmers are abandoning the crop altogether. CNN reported that Alico, a supplier to Tropicana, ended its citrus-growing operations, noting in a memo that “growing citrus is no longer economically viable for us in Florida.” 

The issues with growing in Florida were also compounded by Hurricane Milton in 2024. Matt Joyner, CEO of Florida Citrus Mutual, an advocacy group for growers, shared in an interview, “Milton came across the center of the state and really impacted probably 70% of the most productive citrus acreage in Florida.” Joyner added, “We'd already been struggling, three hurricanes in the last seven years, plus fighting citrus greening, one of the most detrimental diseases known to citrus worldwide for the past two decades, has really put this industry back on its heels for sure.”

How Trump's tariffs will play a role 

In early February, President Donald Trump threatened to impose 25% tariffs on goods imported from Canada and Mexico, a move that almost every economist says will raise the price of goods. It appeared as though Trump was going to back off from this fight; however, on March 4, the president again moved forward and imposed the tariff. In return, Canada says it plans to retaliate with its own tariffs.

Canada's Foreign Minister, Melanie Joly, informed reporters that they are “ready” to implement $155 billion in retaliatory tariffs on U.S. imports, with an initial $30 billion set to take effect immediately — which includes tariffs on Florida orange juice. In addition to new tariffs,

Canada's leaders are also encouraging their citizens to buy local. In early February, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said that tariffs “might mean checking the labels at the supermarket and picking Canadian-made products. It might mean opting for Canadian rye over Kentucky bourbon or forgoing Florida orange juice altogether.” 

But losing Canada as a strong trade partner could further harm the industry and drive up prices for everyone. As Central Florida Public Media reported, “Florida exports tens of millions of dollars worth of orange juice to Canada… About 60% of American orange juice sent to Canada comes from Florida.” However, if Canadians are still craving their OJ fix, they can always choose to import it from other sources like Brazil, China, or the European Union, the three largest orange producers in the world — although Brazil is currently battling its own greening disease epidemic. 

But consumer demand is also a major factor 

Aside from environmental concerns and tariffs, one major challenge for orange juice companies is the overall decline in demand. Stephanie Mattucci, an analyst at Mintel, a market research firm, toldd CNN that rising prices are discouraging customers from purchasing a gallon. In its 2023 report titled The Future of Juice and Juice Drinks, Mintel revealed that only 19% of U.S. consumers believe orange juice provides a “good value.” Additionally, a 2024 study published in Agribusiness found that the average consumer in the U.S. has been drinking less orange juice over the past few decades, with per capita consumption dropping by more than 50% since the mid-2000s. 

In terms of what you can do about it, the reality is you can't do much. However, you could explore mixed juice options, including orange and mandarin blends, which many suppliers are increasingly adopting to maintain supply without customers noticing much of a taste difference. This is a strategy that the U.S. company Uncle Matt’s implemented in 2024, along with others worldwide. Alternatively, you might just have to come to terms with paying more, which is likely the case from here on out.