Pollster Nate Silver on Thursday rated the presidential race as a “toss-up,” but said Vice President Harris is injecting a new enthusiasm into voters that makes it a closer race than when President Biden was at the top of the ticket.
In a post online, Silver recalled a past article where he argued that the race wasn’t a toss-up because of how poor Biden was performing in key swing states, even before his debate performance shocked Democrats into action.
“Now that the election is in kamala_mode, however, it’s far from clear whose position you’d rather be in, and I wouldn’t blame if you wanted to bet either on Harris or on Trump,” he wrote.
As of Thursday, Silver argued, Harris and former President Trump each have at least a 40 percent chance of winning the election. Harris earns 44.6 percent compared to Trump’s 54.9, he said.
“It’s not exactly 50/50, but close enough that a poker player would call it a ‘flip’: Democrats have ace-king suited, and Republicans have pocket jacks,” Silver said.
The FiveThirtyEight founder said Harris is performing well in swing states but it’s still up in the air. He said she has a 54 percent chance of winning Michigan, a 50 percent chance of winning Wisconsin and a 47 percent chance of winning Pennsylvania.
Harris has a 40 percent chance of winning in Nevada, where she’s polling better than Biden did. She has a one-in-three chance in Georgia and North Carolina, he added.
Still, Silver warned that Democrats shouldn’t be too excited. His model has accounted for the excitement that’s generated for Harris after she became the likely nominee but it could be “a temporary surge of Democratic enthusiasm.”
“Still, we’re not exactly going out on a limb here. Betting markets agree with the assessment that the race is about 50/50,” he said.
“And although we can’t tell you who’s going to win, there’s one thing I think we can say with some confidence: Democrats are lucky that they’re getting a second chance in this election with Harris instead of Biden,” Silver concluded.
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