Senators are headed for a showdown over a U.S.-Mexico border deal that’s critical to unlocking aid for Ukraine and Israel.
GOP negotiators in the upper chamber are expressing doubts that even if they can come to an agreement, it won’t be one that Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) can sell to his own members. Johnson, just weeks into his tenure, has rested Ukraine aid on the ability of Republicans to enact border reform, writes The Hill’s Al Weaver. But Republicans and Democrats are far apart on the issue, and GOP senators are openly expressing worries they can secure a deal that Johnson will bring to the House floor.
“Even if we get a majority of Republicans [in the Senate], it will be a steep hill for Speaker Johnson,” said Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), who is part of the bipartisan negotiating group. “There’s no question.”
The border deal concerns the government’s power to admit immigrants into the U.S. on humanitarian grounds, one element of tougher border restrictions Republican lawmakers are demanding to win their support for President Biden’s aid package for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan. While bipartisan talks have made progress on tightening the initial screening process for migrants seeking asylum — a central demand of Republicans — a separate policy known as humanitarian parole has now emerged as a sticking point in negotiations (The Wall Street Journal).
BIDEN ASKED CONGRESS last month to approve $106 billion in national security funding, including aid for Ukraine as it battles a Russian invasion, support for Israel after the Oct. 7 attacks by Hamas and money for additional security at the U.S. border with Mexico. The funding remains in limbo, raising concerns that funds for Ukraine might never pass, particularly after the Republican-led House passed a bill including assistance for Israel, but not Ukraine.
Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) said Tuesday the Senate will begin the consideration of the aid package as soon as next week, adding that an aid bill is needed even if there is no agreement with Republicans on funding for border security measures (Reuters).
“I’m going to put them on the floor next week, hopefully with bipartisan support, because that’s the only way you can get it done,” Schumer said at a weekly news conference.
THE LACK OF A TRUE DEADLINE could allow talks to extend into January, which will be consumed by government spending and the start of the 2024 presidential primary season. Time is of the essence, however, because all of those included in talks are proponents of Ukraine aid and believe the country should have received funding months ago.
“We have been willing to give a lot in these talks. We are way out of [our] traditional comfort zone for Democrats,” Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), one of the leading negotiators, told reporters. “At some point, Republicans are going to have to say ‘yes.’”
The Hill: Why Republicans are souring on Ukraine (first of a three-part series).
A BIPARTISAN GROUP OF SENATORS viewed a compendium of Oct. 7 footage of Hamas attacks in Israel on Tuesday as pro-Israel lawmakers in Congress push for additional aid to America’s ally. They were accompanied to watch the footage by Israel’s ambassador to the U.S. The presentation, which was closed to the press, featured footage assembled by Israel to counter a Hamas narrative about grisly events that sparked Israel’s military bombardment of Palestinians in Gaza (The Hill).
“It was jarring and harrowing,” Schumer said. “It shook all of us up in the room. I had to go sit in my office for a half-hour alone after seeing it.”
WE’RE ALSO WATCHING: Hunter Biden, whose offer to testify before Congress — but only if the hearing is in public — is the president’s son’s latest effort to wrest back some of the initiative from his accusers. In recent months, the younger Biden has launched legal actions against former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani and former Overstock CEO Patrick Byrne. And he’s suing the IRS itself for alleged wrongful disclosure of his personal information. The strategy carries some risks, writes The Hill’s Niall Stanage in the Memo, but the president’s son evidently considers it a better approach than passively soaking up GOP attacks.
Rep. George Santos (R-N.Y.), who expects to be expelled from the House by colleagues this week based on alleged fraud and campaign finance violations, scheduled a Thursday press conference to respond in front of the Capitol. Rep. Robert Garcia (D-Calif.) moved to force a vote on Santos’s expulsion Tuesday, teeing up a third — and potentially historic — vote on the embattled lawmaker’s ouster. Garcia, a top Santos critic, called his resolution a privileged measure, a procedural gambit that forces the chamber to take action on the resolution within two legislative days (The Hill).
3 THINGS TO KNOW TODAY:
▪ Momentum is building in Washington for a special commission to tackle the nation’s nearly $34 trillion debt, but the idea is drawing mixed reviews from some lawmakers amid skepticism of its chances of success in the divided Congress.
▪ “We’re taking it out of hide”: The Pentagon says it has no money for Middle East troop buildup. Under the temporary budget, funding is frozen at the previous year’s levels.
▪ A U.S. military aircraft carrying six people crashed into the sea in western Japan today, killing at least one crew member with the condition of at least two hauled from waters unclear.
LEADING THE DAY
© The Associated Press / Hatem Ali | A Red Cross convoy carrying hostages out of Gaza entered Egypt Sunday.
MIDDLE EAST
What comes after the “humanitarian pauses,” “truce deal” and hostage-for-prisoner swaps between Israel and Hamas? Each side is benefiting from a tenuous lull in fighting that stretched four days to six — and survived accusations of violations of the agreement. But questions remain about the next, difficult phase.
Biden has opposed a cease-fire, despite emotional lobbying by Muslim Americans, younger voters and some officials inside his administration. His fallback: Encourage the halt in fighting long enough to secure the freedom of everyone abducted by militants from Israel on Oct. 7.
UNDER INTENSE DOMESTIC PRESSURE to save Palestinian civilians in Gaza from Israel’s offensive to destroy Hamas, Biden continues to consult Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and is dispatching Secretary of State Antony Blinken to the region this week for his third such trip. CIA Director Bill Burns traveled to Qatar for a Tuesday meeting with Israel’s Mossad spy chief, advocating for an expansive hostage deal that could free male captives held by Hamas and military captives (The Washington Post).
On Tuesday, Hamas released a dozen more hostages, including 10 Israelis and two citizens of Thailand, in exchange for Israel’s release of additional Palestinian prisoners. Some American hostages are presumed to still be in Gaza. The tally as of Tuesday: 60 Israeli hostages freed by Hamas, as well as the release of 21 citizens of other countries. Israel has freed 180 imprisoned Palestinians.
NBC News: The first of three U.S. flights carrying Gaza aid landed in Egypt on Tuesday.
WHERE AND WHEN
The House meets at 10 a.m. House Intelligence Committee Chair Mike Turner (R-Ohio) at 10 a.m. will moderate a panel discussion about “American Interests and Support for Ukraine,” in conjunction with the Atlantic Council Eurasia Center.
The Senate convenes at 10 a.m.
The president will receive the President’s Daily Brief at 10 a.m. He will travel from Denver to Pueblo, Colo., to speak about clean energy manufacturing at CS Wind, the world’s largest wind tower manufacturing company. Biden, during his visit, which was rescheduled from October, plans to make a starkly partisan argument that Republicans, such as Rep. Lauren Boebert of Colorado, are “threatening” job creation, especially in underserved areas of the country where clean energy strides are achievable. Biden is scheduled to return to the White House tonight.
Vice President Harris will fly this morning from Washington to New York City to participate in The New York Times’s “DealBook” moderated conversation at Lincoln Center at 1:30 p.m. She plans to return to Washington this evening in time to host a 7 p.m. reception at the Naval Observatory with husband Doug Emhoff for members of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken began his day in Belgium and will travel later in the day to North Macedonia. In the morning he participated in a third session of the NATO foreign ministers meeting in Brussels and took questions from the press at midday. He plans to meet with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba. Blinken will travel to Skopje, North Macedonia, for an evening meeting with Foreign Minister Bujar Osmani. The secretary will participate in an evening reception on the margins of a ministerial meeting of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), followed by a working dinner.
First lady Jill Biden at 5:30 p.m. will showcase a 2023 White House holiday ice rink installed for the season on the South Lawn.
Economic indicators: The Bureau of Economic Analysis at 8:30 a.m. will report on gross domestic product in the third quarter (second estimate) as well as corporate profits.
ZOOM IN
© The Associated Press / Robert F. Bukaty | New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu (R) in September.
POLITICS
New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu (R) is set to play a critical role in the Granite State’s first-in-the-nation primary, where former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley is hoping a strong result could turn her into a real contender for the GOP crown. The Hill’s Hanna Trudo and Caroline Vakil report Sununu served four terms as New Hampshire’s governor and remains popular — with voters and most of the GOP candidates.
He’s been on the trail in recent weeks not only with Haley, the former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, but with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie. While former President Trump is the huge favorite for the GOP presidential nomination, Haley is gaining steam — and an endorsement from Sununu could help her campaign.
Trump — who in 2020 announced a Middle East peace plan calling for a “realistic two-state solution” — has reacted to the ongoing Israel-Hamas war with mixed messages. The Hill’s Brett Samuels reports Trump initially criticized Israeli leadership about the attacks on Oct. 7 by Hamas fighters, but has since voiced support for the Jewish state. Trump has insisted he would take a harder line than the administration against Iran, which helps fund Hamas, but he also says the Israel-Hamas conflict will have to play out.
2024 ROUNDUP:
▪ Biden at a Denver fundraiser Tuesday seized on Trump’s expressed interest in trying to again find “alternatives” for ObamaCare, enacted in 2010. “His plan is to get rid of the Affordable Care Act. … His plan is to throw every one of them off that legislation,” the president told Democratic donors, speaking about the more than 18 million Americans who currently have health insurance through provisions of the law. “Trump gets his way — it’s all gone,” he continued. “It’s not going to happen on my watch.” Sensing a GOP political vulnerability, Biden’s campaign used a memo Tuesday to make the same points. Meanwhile, GOP lawmakers frown on Trump’s ObamaCare rhetoric but won’t confront the former president, given his status as primary frontrunner.
▪ Former Vice President Mike Pence told federal investigators, referring to events before and during the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol, that Trump in that period surrounded himself with “crank” attorneys, espoused “un-American” legal theories, and almost pushed the country toward a “constitutional crisis,” ABC reported.
▪ A Charles Koch-tied group, Americans for Prosperity Action, endorsed Haley Tuesday in an effort to deny frontrunner Trump the nomination. It’s the first Koch foray in presidential politics since 2012.
ELSEWHERE
© The Associated Press / Patrick Semansky | The Supreme Court building last year.
COURTS
AS JUSTICES take the bench next week or a final session of the year, the Supreme Court will confront several abortion-related disputes behind closed doors. On their emergency docket, The Hill’s Zach Schonfeld reports the justices are weighing Idaho’s request to fully enforce its abortion law, with a ruling possible as soon as late this week. The justices are also scheduled to consider whether to take up the dispute over the availability of mifepristone, the common abortion pill and another appeal that seeks to overturn a precedent allowing laws that ban anti-abortion activists from approaching people outside abortion clinics.
▪ The Dallas Morning News: The future of abortion ban exemptions in Texas lies with the state’s Supreme Court after oral arguments.
▪ The Hill: House GOP lawmakers who flouted the chamber’s mask rules are taking their legal fight to the Supreme Court.
▪ Ohio Capital Journal: The Ohio Supreme Court dismissed a redistricting challenge, leaving statehouse maps in place.
NEW YORK CIVIL FRAUD: A Deutsche Bank executive Tuesday provided court testimony that could bolster Trump’s defense in his civil fraud trial, telling a New York judge that prospective clients can obtain loans even after reporting a net worth far higher than the lender’s own calculations. David Williams, who worked on at least one of three loans Deutsche Bank made to Trump in the years before he was elected president, testified that it’s “atypical, but not entirely unusual” for the bank to cut a client’s stated asset value by 50 percent and approve a loan anyway (Bloomberg News).
D.C. ELECTION INTERFERENCE: Trump’s legal team made a sweeping request for evidence late Monday, seeking to relitigate the 2020 election as part of the legal battle over whether the former president sought to block the transfer of power after losing the election. The requests repeat baseless claims there could be widespread fraud that would have shifted the outcome of the race (The Hill).
Trump also plans to use prosecutors’ words in criminal cases against his fellow Jan. 6 defendants to undermine the special counsel’s case against him. In filings, Trump’s lawyers pointed to prosecutors’ words in other Jan. 6 cases in which defendants tried to blame Trump for their actions that day, saying that prosecutors’ responses to those claims undermined the government’s current argument that Trump shares responsibility for what happened. The filings also suggest that Trump’s team plans to argue that the former president actually believed his debunked claims about the 2020 presidential election. If Trump genuinely believed his own false claims that the election was stolen, his attorneys could argue, then he lacked the criminal intent required for a jury to find him guilty (NBC News).
The Associated Press: Trump embraces the Jan. 6 rioters on the trail. In court, his lawyers hope to distance him from them.
OPINION
■ The evangelical case for U.S. military aid to Ukraine, by Jim Geraghty, contributing columnist, The Washington Post.
■ Trump, MAGA and the insidious underbelly of white supremacy in America, by Derald Wing Sue, opinion contributor, The Hill.
■ What American Jews fear most, by Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), opinion contributor, The New York Times.
THE CLOSER
© The Associated Press / AP photo | Former President Lyndon Johnson appointed the Warren Commission on Nov. 29, 1963, to investigate the Kennedy assassination. The commission released its 888-page report Sept. 27, 1964, pictured.
And finally … 🔎 On this day in 1963, a week after the assassination of President John F. Kennedy, President Lyndon B. Johnson appointed an investigatory commission to examine events in Dallas, including the shooting by Jack Ruby of accused assassin Lee Harvey Oswald.
The panel, led by Supreme Court Chief Justice Earl Warren, with members from the House and Senate, plus two respected private citizens who had government experience, unveiled an 888-page report less than a year later. What became known as the Warren Commission report concluded that Oswald alone fired three bullets that killed the president and wounded Texas Gov. John Connally. That determination was immediately challenged by conspiracy theorists, conflicting witness accounts and competing narratives. The disputes and doubts remain six decades later.
The History Channel: The Warren Commission report delivered to President Johnson.
In 1963, the Warren Commission looked at news footage, amateur photos and 26.6 seconds of 8mm color film taken by Abraham Zapruder showing the president’s motorcade at the time he was shot. (The 2022 Jan. 6 committee, in comparison, had access to 44,000 hours of cell phone video, police body cams, CCTV and news footage of the U.S. Capitol attacks, taken from all angles and over many hours.)
CBS News’s Walter Cronkite in 1967 promised the network would “[screen] out the absurd and the irrational” with a multipart special report that returned to public questions about rumored conspiracies. “Why doesn’t America believe the Warren report?” Cronkite asked in his authoritative anchor voice. Distrust in government was a big part of the explanation, he said.
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