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Some 39 Labour MPs have signalled they will vote against Sir Keir Starmer’s welfare reforms on Tuesday evening, in a tense showdown between the prime minister and his backbenchers despite a £2.5bn U-turn that watered down the package last week.
Starmer’s concessions last Thursday led to the withdrawal of a “reasoned amendment” designed to kill the welfare bill — which had the backing of 126 Labour MPs.
But on Monday evening, Labour MPs tabled a second reasoned amendment with the same intention that quickly garnered 39 signatures from Labour MPs, and a handful from members of other parties.
This second amendment was selected by the speaker of the house for a vote on Tuesday.
The original package of reforms — designed to rein in the ballooning welfare bill while encouraging people back to work — was expected to save £4.8bn for taxpayers, but that figure is now closer to £2bn after last week’s changes.
The reforms will make it harder for new applicants to obtain personal independence payments (Pip), the main type of disability benefit, but Starmer’s concessions mean the changes will not affect existing beneficiaries.
Opening the lengthy debate on the bill on Tuesday, Department of Work and Pensions secretary Liz Kendall said the current welfare system was not sustainable “if we want a welfare state that protects people when they most need our help for years to come”.
“We believe protecting existing claimants while ensuring new Pip awards are focused on those with higher needs in the future strikes the right balance,” she said.
Rachael Maskell, MP for York Central, said her amendment had been tabled on behalf of deaf and disabled people’s organisations, “giving them a voice in this debate as their agency has not been heard”. She said: “Even loyal MPs who were going to vote for [the government’s reforms] are thinking of abstaining.”
Some 83 Labour MPs would need to rebel to defeat the bill if all other parties vote against it, given the government’s working majority of 165. The Conservatives, who have said the measures do not go far enough, have said they will vote against the bill.
Ministers still expect to see the biggest rebellion of Starmer’s premiership, eclipsing the 16 who opposed the planning and infrastructure bill earlier this month.
Tony Blair’s biggest rebellion in his first year involved 47 backbenchers, according to Philip Cowley, politics professor at Queen Mary University.
Business secretary Jonathan Reynolds defended the bill on Tuesday, saying it was better “than what we have at present”.
“At the moment we’re spending a lot of money on outcomes that are just not very good,” he told the BBC.
Official estimates on Monday showed the revised measures will still push 150,000 people into poverty by restricting access to disability benefits to new applicants.
Talks are ongoing between government whips and Labour MPs, although further concessions before Tuesday’s vote — expected at about 7pm — were unlikely, according to people briefed on the discussions.
Despite the government’s concessions, the proposals have been heavily criticised by Labour backbenchers, who fear they will create a “two-tier” system with better support for existing claimants.
One MP who is still planning to vote against the bill said: “I can’t ever remember a bill that’s so contentious and has had such little scrutiny.”
The person added that there were a number of people who had not signed either amendment but were still going to vote against the government.
Many Labour MPs have placed blame for the original package of welfare reforms with chancellor Rachel Reeves, arguing that she pushed too hard for £5bn in savings without ensuring that the changes were well targeted.
Opposition leader Kemi Badenoch said in the chamber on Tuesday that “this is a rushed attempt to plug the chancellor’s fiscal hole, it is driven not by principle but by panic”, adding that “someone in 11 Downing Street made a mistake”.
Debbie Abrahams, a senior Labour MP, told ITV that she would “implore the government to think again” ahead of the vote. “We absolutely recognise these are good concessions, but we’re not quite there yet,” she said.
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