Congress is once again floating the idea of using projected oil and gas revenues from leasing in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to offset rising deficits. But new lease sales in the Refuge aren’t just a bad fiscal bet — they also threaten one of Alaska’s most dependable economic engines: outdoor recreation.
Last month, seven oil and gas leases covering more than 365,000 acres in the Arctic Refuge were reinstated to the Alaska Industrial Development and Export Authority, a corporation that is state-owned and publicly funded but operates with incredibly limited legislative and public oversight — not an oil and gas company. Despite the political fanfare, this isn’t a win for the industry or taxpayers; it’s a clear reminder that private energy companies have higher priorities than the Arctic Refuge.
The Arctic Refuge lease sale in 2021 drew just three bidders, with the Alaska Industrial Development and Export Authority accounting for 84 percent of leased acreage, all sold at the minimum price. The other two bidders eventually relinquished their leases. The most recent lease sale in January 2025 attracted zero bids, delivering precisely zero dollars to taxpayers. Banks such as JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs, along with leading insurers, refuse to support Arctic drilling. When the world’s biggest financial players won’t touch these projects, it’s clear that Arctic drilling is a losing investment.
But the risk isn’t just financial — it’s ecological and economic as well. The Arctic Refuge’s coastal plain is not just a remote stretch of wilderness; it’s a vital ecosystem owned by all Americans that sustains Alaskan livelihoods through hunting, fishing and outdoor recreation. Hunters and anglers rely on the Arctic Refuge’s habitat, home to migrating caribou, nesting waterfowl, and fish species like Arctic char and Dolly Varden trout.
This isn’t empty land — it’s an economic anchor for the region. Outdoor recreation provides stable jobs and reliable revenue for Alaskan communities. The most recent data highlights that outdoor recreation accounts for nearly 5 percent of Alaska’s economy — it added more than $3 billion to the state economy in 2023 and supports 6 percent of Alaska’s jobs.
By pushing speculative oil leases, lawmakers are jeopardizing the reliable revenue that outdoor recreation generates for local communities and the country. Sacrificing one sector’s proven economic gains for uncertain drilling prospects is fiscally irresponsible and shortsighted.
Some in Congress, however, insist on using projected revenues from drilling in the Arctic Refuge to offset extending major provisions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which is set to expire soon. This effort perpetuates the fiction that new leasing in this critical fish and wildlife habitat can meaningfully reduce deficits.
But the numbers don’t lie. According to our detailed analysis of lease sales in Alaska’s National Petroleum Reserve and North Slope region, federal revenues from future Arctic Refuge lease sales would likely amount to just $3 million to $30 million, even if all available acres are offered for sale. That’s a pittance compared to the trillion-dollar deficit impact of extending the 2017 tax cuts. Taxpayers have seen this movie before — and it doesn’t end well.
We raised this alarm in 2017, warning that the promised $1.8 billion in Arctic Refuge auction revenues was wildly exaggerated. And we were right. The first lease sale brought in just $16.5 million — nearly all from the state-backed company at minimum bids. The second sale, in January 2025, generated nothing at all. Doubling down on these leases as a source of meaningful revenue isn’t optimism — it’s budgetary wishful thinking.
Lawmakers must face reality: Revenue from lease sales in the Arctic Refuge aren’t even a rounding error in budget reconciliation. Continuing to gamble taxpayer resources on speculative leases ignores economic facts and undermines proven, sustainable industries — like outdoor recreation — that create high-paying jobs for Alaskans. Leasing in the Arctic Refuge will not generate sizable revenue for taxpayers but will risk irreplaceable wildlife habitats that support an abundance of hunting and angling opportunities.
Domestic oil and gas development and responsible stewardship of public lands don’t have to be mutually exclusive. We can tap America’s vast natural resources and generate meaningful returns for taxpayers while at the same time protecting public lands, wildlife habitats, and valuable outdoor recreation opportunities for generations to come. But banking on Arctic Refuge lease sale revenues to help pay for more tax cuts is as misguided now as it was in 2017.
Back then, just eight years ago, the national debt stood at roughly $20 trillion. Today, it exceeds $36 trillion. Congress needs real budget solutions, not more fiscal delusions that threaten our public lands legacy.
Steve Ellis is president of Taxpayers for Common Sense. Patrick Berry is president and CEO of Backcountry Hunters & Anglers.
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