Arcadium Lithium limps to new lows; UBS starts at Neutral on continued weak pricing

Arcadium Lithium (NYSE:ALTM) closed -9.6% in Tuesday’s trading, one of several alternative energy stocks that posted new 52-week lows as a wave of bearish sentiment swept the energy sector to widespread losses.

Vistra (VST) and Constellation Energy (CEG) comprised two of the day’s three biggest losers on the S&P 500, -11.3% and -9.6% respectively.

Also sliding to new 52-week lows: Ascent Solar Technologies (ASTI) -19.5%, Ballard Power Systems (BLDP) -4.9%, Blink Charging (BLNK) -8%, Canadian Solar (CSIQ) -3%, Fuelcell Energy (FCEL) -4.9%, Li-Cycle Holdings (LICY) -7.2%, Plug Power (PLUG) -6.9%, TETRA Technologies (TTI) -5.6%, Workhorse (WKHS) -9.3%.

Arcadium Lithium (ALTM) was initiated with a Neutral rating and $3 price target at UBS, saying lower lithium prices are likely to delay expansions into later in the decade, according to analyst Joshua Spector.

The bank’s updated lithium view indicates China prices could stay near $10/kg over the next two years, as China/Africa supply continues to be added at a lower cost position than anticipated, and western low-cost supply continues to ramp.

Spector says his Arcadium (ALTM) EBITDA estimate for 2025-26 is 20%-26% below consensus, “a near-term negative, but with our forecasts closer to spot pricing, the market may already be there.”

UBS has a more constructive view on Arcadium (ALTM) for the longer term, but does not see the market giving credit for potential capacity expansions or higher lithium prices until the current period of oversupply is worked through – probably not until at least 2026.