With the first phase of the Gaza ceasefire set to expire this weekend amid ongoing negotiations, the central drama is whether Israel and Hamas will move to the second stage of the deal, extend the current arrangement or resume their brutal war. For Israel, caught in a web of political, moral and strategic dilemmas, a resumption of fighting would almost certainly cost thousands more lives, including those of the remaining hostages.
The irony is that Israel is struggling to live with a deal that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu signed under pressure from Donald Trump in January — yet that same Trump has in effect given Israel carte blanche to walk away with his blessing.
This green light was reinforced by Secretary of State Marco Rubio during his visit to Israel two weeks ago. Rubio declared that Hamas cannot remain in power, a statement widely interpreted as tacit permission for Israel to back out of the ceasefire, which would effectively leave Hamas ruling Gaza.
Polls show most Israelis supported the deal, which meant an end to the war and a Gaza pullout in exchange for all the hostages. But that doesn’t mean that leaving Hamas in charge in Gaza sits well or does not bode ill. It is an excruciating outcome. And yet, there is a better way forward than resuming the war.
Israel should honor the ceasefire agreement, even though it means tolerating Hamas for a while longer. This is the only realistic path to securing the hostages' safe return.
Moreover, Hamas’ resilience is partly a result of Israel’s own actions. Netanyahu has refused to plan for the aftermath of the war or to consider alternatives to Hamas because his far-right coalition partners, who dream of resettling Gaza, would never agree to a realistic long-term strategy — and they can bring down his coalition.
Nonetheless, the hostages' lives must come first.
But this does not mean Hamas should remain entrenched in Gaza indefinitely. The focus must shift to removing Hamas through non-military means. And this is where the Arab world must finally step up. Throughout the post-colonial period, the Arab League has perfected the art of condemning Israel while doing little to improve Palestinian lives. But now, given the high stakes, Qatar, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the UAE cannot continue simply to mediate from the sidelines.
Trump’s Feb. 4 suggestion that the region’s Arab countries take in refugees, controversial though it was, underscored a good point: Gaza is their problem too, and the disaster of the Palestinians’ situation is in part their own doing. Moreover, it is in their interest to end the cycle of war and radicalization that fuels instability across the Middle East.
The U.S. should push these states to present Hamas with a stark choice. Down one path would be a massive reconstruction plan for Gaza, likely exceeding $100 billion. But this aid would be conditional on a governance transition to the Palestinian Authority, which would itself have to undergo significant reforms. The PA’s president, Mahmoud Abbas, is an octogenarian leader last elected two decades ago.
There must be a clear succession plan, anti-corruption measures and a revised educational curriculum that fosters coexistence rather than hatred. Security in Gaza would be maintained by a new framework involving direct involvement of Gulf nations like the UAE and Saudi Arabia working alongside Egypt.
Should Hamas refuse, the alternative would be stark: no full-scale reconstruction aid, a continued maximal blockade by Israel and Egypt, and only limited humanitarian relief. The Arab League would explicitly denounce Hamas and join the West in delivering the message that Hamas is the chief obstacle to Palestinian well-being.
This will intensify pressure from within Gaza. This strategy maximizes pressure on Hamas from within, rather than relying solely on Israeli military force, which has failed to dislodge the group despite 16 months of war. It gives the Palestinian public a clear choice between continued oppression under Hamas and a pathway to a better life. The prevalent notion that Palestinians are fated to irrational extremism is not necessarily true and should be tested.
If the Arabs fail to act, they will be tacitly endorsing Hamas’s tyrannical rule and forfeiting any claim to regional leadership. But if they step up, they could pave the way for a historic shift in Middle East dynamics, enhancing their credibility on the world stage.
Meanwhile, Gazans who wish to relocate should be allowed to do so, whether to the West Bank or elsewhere in the region — without losing the right to go back. This is not ethnic cleansing but a humane option, akin to how other refugees are treated globally.
This approach could collapse Netanyahu’s government, as members of his government, including Bezalel Smotrich, have openly suggested sacrificing hostages to continue the war. That is a morally indefensible stance, and Netanyahu’s survival is not a vital Israeli interest. No leader has the moral right to sacrifice citizens for political gain.
Moreover, when hostilities end, Israel will have to confront Netanyahu's catastrophic failures: on Oct. 7, on national security and on governance. The government has been obstructing efforts to establish an inquiry commission, arguing that it must wait until the war is over. This argument clearly incentivizes another forever war. Trump should be blocking that rather than aiding it.
This is a moment of truth for all parties. Israel should prioritize the hostages and rediscover its strategic bearing. The Arab League should do something constructive for perhaps the first time in its history. And the world should demand a future for Gaza that does not involve perpetual war and tyranny at the hands of nihilist jihadi madmen.
Dan Perry is the former Cairo-based Middle East editor and London-based Europe/Africa editor of the Associated Press, the former chairman of the Foreign Press Association in Jerusalem and the author of two books. Follow him at danperry.substack.com.
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