Experts Warn Coffee Prices May Keep Rising — Here’s What to Expect

Some two billion cups of coffee are consumed every single day around the world. It's a shared ritual enjoyed by many, but it's one that could also be in serious trouble. 

In early February, coffee futures spiked in New York City (a price benchmark destination), rising more than 6% in a day on February 10 in the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE). This, Reuters reported, caused coffee to hit an all-time high of more than $4.30 per pound.

Why the high pricing?

As noted by Reuters, many traders cited panic over limited coffee availability due to reports of dry, hot weather in Brazil, the world's largest producer of arabica coffee beans. This weather pattern follows a prolonged drought in 2024, which Food & Wine previously reported resulted in poor crop estimates for the upcoming year. Volcafe specialists have reduced their 2025 and 2026 forecasts for arabica to 34.4 million bags, down nearly 11 million bags from the estimate made in September. A new drought will only worsen the situation. 

Vietnam, the world's second-largest coffee producer, experienced its worst drought in 70 years in 2024. This was followed by severe flooding, which caused crop failure and only exacerbated already depleted supplies, according to NBC News.

“Panic has finally shown up, prices will continue to rise,” Bob Fish, co-founder of coffee franchise Biggby Coffee, shared with Reuters. “There are only two things that can stop this: one, Brazil and Vietnam have a good yield year (that is not expected until August 2026). Two, there is enough demand destruction in consuming countries because of the price increases.” 

However, Reuters reported that many coffee dealers are saying the price fluctuations are a self-fulfilling prophecy. Many believe the next harvest in Brazil could be better than expected. Still, the ups and downs are leaving many coffee purveyors in the lurch.

“Coffee prices continue to blow us away, and they continue to break record after record,” Heather Perry, the CEO of Klatch Coffee and a U.S. Barista Champion, shared with Food & Wine in January. But Perry noted, there isn't just one “obvious cause” of the price increases, rather, a compounding effect that will continue to trickle down to consumers over the next several months. And that's already begun in New York City, where Peter Longo, owner of the city's Porto Rico Importing Co., told the New York Post he had to raise prices on bulk beans from $15.99 to $16.99 while his shops raised the price of coffee between 5-10%. “It’s a nightmare,” Longo added. 

As for how we'll overcome this, Yannis Apostolopoulos, the CEO of the Specialty Coffee Association, told Food & Wine that it will require “collaboration across the value chain, balancing short-term financial realities with long-term goals to support producers and meet consumer expectations for traceability and quality.” One option is perhaps simply shelling out more for your favorite cup.