Why Tomato Prices Could See a 50% Price Surge This Month

Tomato prices usually drop in mid-summer, but this July, they might rise instead. 

A 2019 trade agreement that exempted fresh tomatoes from Mexico from a 20.91% tariff is set to expire on July 14, raising concerns about potential price increases in grocery stores and restaurants.

The U.S. Department of Commerce announced in April that it intends to withdraw from the Suspension Agreement on Fresh Tomatoes from Mexico — a deal originally brokered to resolve a long-running antidumping dispute without formal duties. Once the agreement expires, most fresh tomato imports from Mexico will now be subject to a 20.91% tariff.

That matters because Mexico supplies a significant share of the U.S. tomato supply. According to a 2025 U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecast, 93% of U.S. tomato imports come from Mexico. The same report notes that growers are already scaling back planting for the autumn–winter season — Mexico’s peak export window — in response to the expected return of anti-dumping duties.

What is the Suspension Agreement?

The Suspension Agreement dates back to 1996, when U.S. tomato growers filed an antidumping complaint against Mexican producers, alleging they were selling tomatoes at below-market prices. The resulting deal allowed Mexican growers to avoid tariffs as long as they adhered to strict minimum pricing, labeling, and sales rules overseen by the U.S. Department of Commerce and the USDA Agricultural Marketing Service.

The agreement was renegotiated several times, most recently in 2019. But tensions between domestic producers and importers have persisted.

Florida-based tomato groups pushed for the agreement’s end, arguing that dumping was still occurring and that U.S. growers were being undercut. Industry representatives, such as those from the Florida Tomato Exchange, argue that the change will “level the playing field” for American farmers.

Importers, however, warn of the consumer impact. The Fresh Produce Association of the Americas has cautioned that tomato prices could increase by as much as 50%, depending on how tariffs ripple through the supply chain.

What could this mean for consumers?

The short-term effects may take several weeks to fully show up in stores, especially as distributors clear out existing inventory. However, the combination of tighter supply, peak seasonal demand, and new costs could raise retail prices later this summer, at a time when tomatoes are typically cheapest.

Tomatoes are the most popular fresh vegetable consumed in the U.S., and they’re central to everything from BLTs to salsa. What many shoppers don’t realize is that Mexico supplies 93% of U.S. tomato imports, according to the USDA. And while Florida and California are major domestic producers, they can’t fully meet the national demand, especially during winter and early spring. This makes the U.S. tomato supply particularly vulnerable to cross-border changes like tariffs.

Higher prices may lead to substitution (hello, cucumbers) or a rise in prices on tomato-forward menu items at restaurants. Even if the agreement is reinstated — or modified — after July 14, the uncertainty is already influencing planting decisions. The USDA notes that many Mexican growers are cutting back on investment and exploring alternative markets to offset U.S. demand disruptions.

This isn’t just a price story. Reduced planting means less work — not just for farmers, but also for the people who pack, ship, and process tomatoes along the way. According to the USDA, growers are already scaling back for the autumn–winter season, when U.S.-bound exports are usually at their peak. The ripple effect could impact both sides of the border, from farm labor in Sinaloa to distribution jobs tied to U.S. imports.

How will this impact your grocery bill?

Fresh tomatoes are a staple in American kitchens, but the supply chain relies heavily on imports, especially during colder months. If tariffs return, shoppers may see higher prices not just in the produce aisle but anywhere tomatoes appear on the menu. From salsas to salads, BLTs to marinara, the effects will ripple outward quietly but noticeably.