Sneakerheads losing interest and spending less (NKE)

Sneak-er-head/snēker hed/: a sneaker enthusiast.

Sneakers are the most popular type of footwear with 47% of all consumers saying they wear “athletic shoes” most often. For teens, the sneaker is about more than just comfort or function, and what’s on their feet says as much as what’s on their back. Piper Sandler’s Teen Survey takes a closer look at teens and sneakerheads, and what these “sneaker enthusiasts” are buying, how much they’re buying, and where they’re buying it.

What was most surprising about the study was the declining number of teens who identify themselves as sneakerheads, down 80 basis points year-over-year to 24%, and they are spending 3% less overall as COVID tailwinds dissipate and inflationary pressures remain.

Teens still like Nike (NYSE:NKE) with the Jordan brand the favorite among 78% of sneakerheads, a trend that hasn’t changed in two years. But other brands are catching up. New Balance is gaining market share, so too is HOKA (DECK), On Running (ONON), ASICS, and Japanese fashion brand A Bathing Ape. Losing share is Adidas/YEEZY (ADDYY, ADDDF), Vans (VFC), Converse (NKE), Under Armour (UA), Puma, and Reebok. Saucony (WWW) was unchanged at 2%.

The rising penetration of On (ONON) in the U.S. cannot be understated and although it currently has the lowest brand awareness, it also has the highest implied rate of growth, amplified by the addition of apparel. Popular among athletes and fashion enthusiasts, On enjoys strong DTC sales as well. Wall Street analysts are mostly bullish towards On (ONON), but a few bears point to the stock’s high valuation and doubts that it can maintain a growth trajectory to fuel share price gains. Piper Sandler gives ONON an overweight rating and a price target with 17% upside.

Deckers’ HOKA was the only brand for the company that saw an increase in sales in Q1 and is currently Deckers’ (DECK) fastest growing and second-largest brand accounting for close to 40% of FY23 sales (UGG’s is number one). Despite the popularity of HOKA and UGG, most analysts give Deckers (DECK) a Hold rating on valuation concerns and potential disruptions to its supply chain which remains heavily concentrated in Asia. Piper is also Neutral on Deckers (DECK) and sets its price target 2.5% below Friday’s close.

Losing market share is Crocs (CROX), leading Piper to think the Crocs trend may be at or near its peak with teens. Analysts remain bullish on Crocs (CROX), however, even with the drag from its teen-centric HEYDUDE category and the slower revenue and earnings growth guidance in Q1. There is building consensus that the worst may be behind Crocs (CROX) as management continues to deleverage its balance sheet and the HEYDUDE inventory correction looks to be complete later this year. Crocs (CROX) is rated Overweight at Piper with a $140 price target.

Teens are more likely to buy sneakers at the brand’s website followed by secondary websites like Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS), Amazon (AMZN) and Foot Locker (FL). But gaining market share among this demographic is Academy Sports (ASO) [+2%], Hibbett Sports (HIBB) [+2%], and Fanatics [+2%].

As for risks, consumer spending poses a potential risk that is common to all the brands followed by inflation, fashion trends, and inventory. And while some are more insulated from shifts in fashion, such as Nike (NKE), Piper Sandler cautions that macro pressures are beginning to impact sneakerheads’ spending.