Got Pizza in Your Freezer? We’re Probably in a Recession

Five years ago, when COVID-19 restrictions shuttered indoor dining, many consumers turned to home cooking — though not necessarily from scratch. Instead, they leaned heavily on a familiar standby: frozen pizza.

Sales of frozen pizza jumped by $1 billion in 2020, climbing from $5.6 billion in 2019 to nearly $6.6 billion. Even after restaurants reopened, demand remained strong. By 2024, U.S. frozen pizza sales reached nearly $7 billion, contributing to a global market worth $18.5 billion.

Now, as economic uncertainty grows amid rising tariffs and recession fears, analysts predict frozen pizza could become an even bigger player at mealtime. Greenwich Capital Group projects the category will grow by 6.6% over the next few years.

“During periods of economic uncertainty, it’s common for consumers to shift from takeout to frozen pizza as a cost-saving measure,” says R.J. Hottovy, head of analytical research at Placer.ai, which monitors retail trends.

Placer.ai’s data shows year-over-year increases in foot traffic at value-focused grocery stores, while visits to pizza chains have been inconsistent. “That suggests budget-conscious consumers may be adjusting their dining habits,” Hottovy explains.

Economists and market watchers often view a surge in frozen pizza sales as an informal recession indicator. Like other “comfort essentials” such as boxed macaroni and cheese or canned soup, frozen pizza tends to see a boost when consumers start tightening their budgets. It’s not just about cost — it’s convenience, long shelf life, and the sense of familiarity that make frozen pizza a go-to choice when economic anxiety rises. When sales of these products spike, it’s often seen as a sign that households are preparing to spend less on dining out and more on affordable staples.

There are signs that budget pizza is gaining traction. Each year, Aldi releases its list of fan-favorite items — products that stand out across various categories based on customer preferences. In 2024, Mama Cozzi’s Pizza Kitchen Take and Bake Deli Pizza earned a spot on that list. Sold in Aldi’s deli section, the 16-inch pepperoni pizza retails for $7.59 — more than $20 cheaper than a similar pie from a pizzeria.

But the frozen pizza boom isn’t limited to value options. Premium brands are seeing growth too. For over a year, Giordano’s, the iconic Chicago pizzeria, has been promoting its frozen pies online, offering them through its website and gourmet delivery platform Goldbelly.

A two-pack of Giordano’s full-sized deep dish pizzas sells for $84.99, or $42.50 each. Prices drop with bulk orders: a six-pack goes for $159.99, bringing the cost per pizza to $26.67. Customers can also opt for variety packs, including six individual-sized pizzas (two each of plain, pepperoni, and sausage) for $84.99 — about $14.10 per pizza.

“In general, our ecommerce business has grown significantly over the last 12 months,” says Dan Gilland, Giordano’s director of ecommerce. “I couldn’t say that the economic uncertainty is responsible for an uptick in sales because our growth has been strong for over a year now, but we certainly continue to see customers valuing our frozen pizza even in the current environment.”

Gilland acknowledges the premium pricing, but believes customers see the value. “One pizza is enough for a family dinner, and customers who may not be able to make it to a Giordano’s restaurant can still experience an authentic Giordano’s pizza,” he says.

While demand appears poised to keep climbing, Greenwich Capital warns that supply chain infrastructure may not keep pace. “Cold storage, which accounts for only 1.7% of the industrial market, faces persistent capacity challenges due to high costs, specialized requirements, and changing technology,” the firm noted in an analysis.

Whether you’re saving or splurging, there’s likely a frozen pizza that fits your budget — and in uncertain times, that little bit of comfort can go a long way.