Exxon expects up to $1.8B lower Q1 profit from lower oil and gas prices (NYSE:XOM)

Exxon Mobil’s (NYSE:XOM) Q1 operating profit pulled back from last year’s record levels, according to an 8-K filing released Tuesday, as oil and gas prices cooled off compared to the final quarter of 2022.

Q1 operating profit from the oil and gas business is expected to drop by $1B-$1.8B from the $8.2B amassed in Q4 2022, while unsettled derivatives could hit profit by $1.8B-$2.2B in the latest quarter.

Lower oil prices are expected to hit upstream earnings by $600M-$1B in Q1 compared with Q4, and lower natural gas prices should knock $400M-$800M from upstream earnings, according to the filing.

Exxon (XOM) shares closed -0.9% in Tuesday’s trading, giving back some of the gains from the initial reaction to OPEC’s output cuts.

Seeking Alpha contributor Leo Nelissen says Exxon Mobil (XOM) is a big winner from the production cuts, but Stone Fox Capital thinks investors should “sell the OPEC+ rip.”