I’ve confirmed that the Protection Intelligence Company is relying solely on Ukraine for the intelligence on Russian and Ukrainian casualties. In different phrases, if Ukraine tells its DIA liaison officer that Ukraine killed 400 Russians in its newest HIMARS strike then that’s what DIA tells the U.S. Normal commanding EUCOM. That is greater than troubling. That is harmful.
There are six primary forms of intelligence {that a} good analyst ought to seek the advice of in making ready an evaluation:
- 1) Intelligence from foreigners recruited to spy for the US,
- 2) Intelligence produced by international governments that’s handed to the US,
- 3) Reviews produced by U.S. Authorities organizations, e.g. State Division cables despatched from US embassies and Protection Attache stories based mostly on data the attache collected in a selected nation,
- 4) Digital intercepts, which incorporates communications collected and analyzed by the Nationwide Safety Company,
- 5) Imagery from satellites and air craft (together with drones)
- 6) Open supply, e.g. press, media, and social media
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What DIA and CIA should be doing is to scour all supply intelligence to give you an correct report on the casualty fee for Ukraine and Russia. For instance, absolutely the US has intercepted communications between Russian army instructions discussing killed and wounded. Ditto with respect to Ukraine.
Here’s what we all know with certainty from open supply stories.
Russia is firing a staggering 20,000 artillery rounds per day, a senior U.S. protection official estimated, whereas Ukraine is firing from 4,000 to 7,000 rounds each day.
The Ukrainians are rapidly burning by means of their stockpiles of artillery rounds and different ammunition, together with for his or her air protection methods, officers mentioned.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/russia-ukraine-war-ammo-rcna56210
These rounds translate into casualties on either side. Put merely, Ukraine is struggling no less than 4 instances the variety of killed and wounded than Russia.
U.S. journalists are a lazy lot and are regurgitating to the general public the official line introduced to them by the White Home, the Division of Protection and the Division of State. The identical applies to most of Europe. However every so often, a reporter stumbles on to the reality. Maria Senovilla, who writes for the Spanish journal Atalayer, dedicated an act of journalism:
What is going on within the battle of Bakhmut? The information we’re receiving is of the loss of life of very many individuals.
Sure, we’ve to look to the Donbas as a result of Bakhmut is exactly the blackest level of the battle in Ukraine. This week, each the Institute for the Research of Struggle, which is a prestigious American assume tank, and different worldwide skinny tanks, have agreed that as much as 400 Ukrainian troopers a day are being killed and wounded in Bakhmut.
And past the quantity, which is only a determine, I’ve been in a position to speak in latest days with completely different army sources, each official and combatants who’ve been there, and what they are saying makes one’s hair stand on finish. The town is for the second beneath Ukrainian management, however the Russian troops have stationed their artillery shut sufficient to fireside there, however far sufficient away in order to not expose their troops an excessive amount of. In the meantime, the Ukrainian military, because it has to defend the terrain, has a variety of infantry, gentle items, paramilitary items that may do little towards the bombs. This fight entrance has change into at present an actual human meat grinder. That’s how crude I can say it.
Proper now it is likely one of the most, if not essentially the most, worrying level for Zelenski’s armed forces. Our listeners are most likely questioning what’s the significance of Bakhmut to take such a dedication to defend the place with such a really excessive value of dwelling. Bakhmut shouldn’t be an iconic metropolis like Severodonetsk was, the place one of many nice battles of this battle additionally befell. Bakhmut shouldn’t be that sort of iconic metropolis. Nonetheless, it’s a communications hub that’s key to the availability strains of Ukrainian troops in Donetsk province, and it’s also the buffer that accommodates the advance of Kremlin troops in direction of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. If the Russian Military had been to take these two cities, it will achieve nearly whole management of the Donetsk province and, due to this fact, of your entire Donbas, one thing that Putin may already promote as a terrific victory. So you may think about the trouble that the Kremlin is placing proper now in taking Bakhmut and what it’s costing the Ukrainians to defend it.
https://atalayar.com/index.php/en/content material/maria-senovilla-bakhmut-blackest-point-ukrainian-war-400-ukrainian-soldiers-day-are-being
I perceive why politicians will lie a couple of failing coverage. However it’s inexcusable for intelligence professionals to allow that mendacity. One of the best antidote is factual, goal evaluation. Particularly evaluation based mostly on a number of sources. Politicians want a Dutch Uncle who will inform them uncomfortable truths. That isn’t taking place. Considered one of nowadays the fact of the carnage Ukraine is struggling will change into not possible to cowl up and the Kabuki theater of on the lookout for a scapegoat will kick off in Washington. Guess what? Will probably be referred to as an intelligence failure. The politicians will probably be frantic to flee any blame for the debacle of “shedding Ukraine” and the intelligence group would be the wrongdoer. On this case, the intelligence group could have earned its culpability. They’re cowards who refuse to face up and inform the reality.
