The 2022 Stanley Cup Ultimate is ready to start Wednesday night time in Denver, and it guarantees to be probably the greatest matchups in current reminiscence. The Tampa Bay Lightning need to turn out to be the primary crew to three-peat because the New York Islanders received 4 in a row from 1980 to 1983. The high-flying Colorado Avalanche are averaging 4.64 targets per recreation, they usually wanted simply 14 video games to advance to the finals.
Who will get the perfect of the goalie matchup? How will accidents impression each groups? Who’re the gamers to pay probably the most consideration to? We requested our hockey specialists — Emily Kaplan, Kristen Shilton and Greg Wyshynski — these questions and extra forward of the beginning of the finals.
What are you most enthusiastic about on this postseason matchup?
Whereas we do not usually wish to site visitors in hyperbole, this matchup between the Lightning and Avalanche is the best of the previous twenty years within the NHL.
It is not one by which an upstart crew is attempting to stop a prohibitive favourite from successful the championship, as so many Stanley Cup finals are inclined to pattern. No, it is a battle between what clearly have been the 2 greatest groups of the postseason. There is a galaxy of stars, a set of heroic position gamers and powerful teaching staffs on each groups. The Lightning and Avalanche excel on each ends of the ice, though every is a little bit higher on one finish than the opposite. Colorado’s 4.64 targets per recreation common is the very best because the Edmonton Oilers in 1988 (minimal 14 video games). Tampa Bay leads the playoffs with a 2.41 goals-against common in entrance of the perfect goalie on the planet in Andrei Vasilevskiy.
Then there’s the narrative hook. The Lightning are attempting to turn out to be the primary NHL crew to three-peat because the Islanders within the ’80s. The Lightning are the sixth crew to win back-to-back Cups since then and the primary of the six to advance previous the second spherical following the second championship. To perform this in a salary-cap period is miraculous. The Avalanche, in the meantime, are attempting to win their first Cup since 2001. This crew of the Nathan MacKinnon period had been a playoff disappointment, failing to advance previous the second spherical in 4 straight postseasons. Now the Avs have damaged via. And so they’re attempting to emulate the 1984 Oilers, who defeated the Islanders within the Stanley Cup Ultimate: Finish one dynasty whereas beginning certainly one of their very own.
However probably the most thrilling factor? That any prediction is a sound one and any final result is comprehensible. The ESPN hockey household predicted a Lightning victory, however with solely 14 of 26 pundits backing that choose. The matchup is that shut. That is going to be a blast. — Greg Wyshynski
What has been the largest key to the Lightning having an opportunity at a three-peat?
Group tradition. However that begins with how the crew was constructed. The Lightning constructed their championship crew via the draft, and their scouting division is due a ton of credit score for locating guys like Ondrej Palat (seventh spherical), Brayden Level (third spherical) and Anthony Cirelli (third spherical). Additionally credit score the crew’s growth and training staffs for setting these guys on the suitable path.
The crew is consistently strapped in opposition to the cap, forcing likable and gifted gamers out the door. However they repeatedly hit on free brokers and midseason pickups, as Corey Perry, Pierre-Edouard Bellemare, Brandon Hagel and Nicholas Paul have match seamlessly into the lineup. It seems like character and position are simply as necessary to the Lightning as talent; it is why they’ll seemingly overpay for a participant like Hagel and be ok with it. He performs within the position he must carry out in — plain and easy.
Maybe an important ingredient is the identification of the Lightning. Whereas we all the time assume they’re an offensive crew, their true expertise lies of their defensive construction. Stylistically, gamers all purchase in. And as soon as they clamped down in opposition to the Rangers, starting in the midst of Recreation 2 of the Jap Convention finals, New York did not stand an opportunity. The fellows within the Lightning locker room love taking part in with one another and belief one another to fill their roles; that is a tradition that’s constructed over time and isn’t simple to copy. — Emily Kaplan
Who’re two gamers (one on every crew) you possibly can’t wait to look at within the finals?
I feel Anthony Cirelli has a star flip to come back for the Lightning on this collection. He’s beginning to be acknowledged as probably the greatest defensive forwards within the recreation, and his work this postseason has been elite. Cirelli has thrived in assignments that matched him in opposition to the opponent’s top-line heart. That résumé consists of Auston Matthews in Spherical 1, Aleksander Barkov within the second spherical and Mika Zibanejad within the convention finals. You might be positive Nathan MacKinnon is the subsequent man up for Cirelli, however Lightning coach Jon Cooper might need to attend till the video games in Tampa to actually match up the traces.
On the Avs, I have been blown away by Cale Makar this postseason, and I am so excited to look at him reside. Makar dazzled us so many occasions in the course of the common season — and along with his superb skating usually made it look easy — but he has in some way appeared to up his recreation in the course of the playoffs. He’s going to be the man on this league for a few years, and this Ultimate ought to be an ideal showcase to a really giant viewers. — Kaplan
What are your ideas on the goalie matchup?
That is the Lightning’s most emphatic benefit within the collection. After a tough first spherical in opposition to the Toronto Maple Leafs, Andrei Vasilevskiy has a .939 save share and a 1.81 goals-against common at 5-on-5 in 10 video games. He closed out his much-hyped goalie duel in opposition to the Rangers’ Igor Shesterkin with 4 straight wins and a .955 save share in these video games. Vasilevskiy’s standing as a more in-depth is famous: He has 13 profession series-clinching wins and has stopped 219 of 221 photographs in his previous eight series-clinching victories.
There’s an inherent confidence within the Lightning due to the best way Vasilevskiy performs within the postseason. When adversity hits, everybody from the gamers to teach Jon Cooper will declare that Vasilevskiy is the least of their worries. That confidence is warranted and rewarded.
Saying the Avalanche have received despite their goaltending is a bit harsh to Darcy Kuemper and Pavel Francouz. It is kinder to say that they have not been the rationale the Avalanche have received three rounds of the playoffs.
However it’s correct to say that Colorado’s protection has been simpler than its goaltending: The Avalanche have an anticipated targets charge of two.13 per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, whereas their precise targets in opposition to per 60 is 2.47. Kuemper has a .897 save share for the postseason, together with .908 at even energy. Francouz has a .906 postseason save share and a decent .916 at even energy. However metrically, Kuemper has a minus-4.4 targets saved above common, which is the worst for any goalie who has performed at the least 10 video games this postseason.
The Avalanche say they’ve confidence in whoever performs within the Ultimate, noting the work Kuemper did within the common season and that Francouz has received six straight video games within the playoffs, together with a 24-save shutout in opposition to the Oilers. However it pales compared to the arrogance the Lightning have of their man. — Wyshynski
Who’re a number of the skaters which might be key to their crew’s success?
Nathan MacKinnon, Avalanche: MacKinnon has 18 factors in 14 playoff video games, together with 11 targets, which is the very best complete for anybody within the Ultimate. The key to his success is shot quantity: MacKinnon’s 16.7 photographs per 60 minutes in all conditions is the very best charge within the postseason. His drive to succeed and depth are legendary amongst his teammates; he by no means takes a follow off, not to mention a recreation.
Gabriel Landeskog, Avalanche: The captain of the Avalanche has 17 factors in 14 video games. They’ve had him taking part in up with MacKinnon just lately, though Colorado additionally has performed him on a second line with Nazem Kadri when he’s wholesome. Landeskog’s physicality is an asset.
Mikko Rantanen, Avalanche: The Finnish winger has 17 factors in 14 video games, together with 12 assists, greatest amongst Colorado forwards. He has been on a heater currently, with factors in 9 of his previous 10 video games. He could possibly be a game-breaker on this collection.
Devon Toews, Avalanche: Emily talked about Cale Makar, so let’s deal with his defensive accomplice. As a duo, Toews and Makar had been deployed in opposition to Connor McDavid within the Edmonton collection, and Colorado steadily had the higher of play at 5-on-5. Whereas Toews is greatest often called the “defensive defenseman” within the pairing with Makar, Toews additionally has 13 factors in 14 video games. It has been that sort of run for the Avs.
Steven Stamkos, Lightning: The captain has 9 targets and 6 assists within the playoffs. He was a difference-maker within the Jap Convention finals with 4 targets, together with Tampa Bay’s solely two targets within the Recreation 6 clincher. Avalanche basic supervisor Joe Sakic, who captained Colorado to 2 Stanley Cup wins as a participant, praised Stamkos’ poise and management.
Nikita Kucherov, Lightning: With 23 factors in 17 video games, Tampa Bay’s scoring chief is steadily the pacesetter for the way the Lightning play. When he is on, the bench takes discover. His 1.35 factors per recreation ranks fourth amongst gamers with at the least 10 postseason video games. A superb passer who also can rating targets with the perfect of them.
Ondrej Palat, Lightning: There was a second in the course of the convention finals when somebody referred to Palat as a key position participant however not a star participant. “Who says he is not a star?” snapped Tampa Bay winger Pat Maroon. “We expect he is a star.” Whereas he is not a family title, Palat has starred for the Lightning in these playoffs with 16 factors in 17 video games. That features game-winning targets in two of the victories over the Rangers, each scored with lower than two minutes left in regulation.
Victor Hedman, Lightning: This was the sixth straight season that Hedman was a finalist for the Norris Trophy, which is awarded to the NHL’s greatest defenseman. He has received the award solely as soon as, which is a little bit baffling given his dominance at each ends of the ice. However he does have one other necessary piece of {hardware}: the 2020 Conn Smythe Trophy as playoff MVP. He’ll should be at his greatest to assist gasoline the Lightning offense — he has 14 factors in 17 video games — and assist shut down the MacKinnon line. — Wyshynski
How large of an impression will house ice play on this collection?
I am typically a proponent of chaos idea within the Stanley Cup Ultimate. What has occurred earlier than by no means performs as large a task as you assume it would. The extent of desperation usually trumps any traits we have seen in prior collection.
Nonetheless, it is price noting that each groups have been exceptionally good at house. Tampa Bay is 7-1 in its constructing and hasn’t misplaced there since Recreation 3 of the primary spherical in opposition to Toronto. Colorado is 5-2 at house, placing the Avalanche’s solely two losses of the complete postseason on house ice. At first look, that might give the Lightning a bonus; Amalie Enviornment patrons had been handled to a Ultimate final season, and they’ll undoubtedly convey much more power this time round.
However the Avalanche devoted have been ready for this second since 2001. There are seats in Ball Enviornment going for $10,000 on the open market. If a crowd that passionate and hungry for a long-awaited Cup win cannot present an additional enhance, one thing is flawed.
Colorado earned home-ice benefit, and I feel it would play an element. Whether or not that is firstly of the collection or on the finish, we’ll discover out. However simply think about what a Recreation 7 in Denver may feel and look like, based mostly on how intense the followers had been in Video games 1 and a couple of of the Western Convention finals. That is the place the distinction might actually be felt. — Kristen Shilton
Some under-the-radar gamers you may be listening to?
J.T. Compher, Avalanche. Within the quick time period, the Avalanche heart was tasked with attempting to fill the void left by injured heart Nazem Kadri. However general, Compher has been certainly one of their rising goal-scoring threats over the previous few weeks. He scored two targets in Recreation 6 in opposition to the St. Louis Blues; two extra in Recreation 1 in opposition to the Oilers; after which the game-winning objective in Recreation 3 in Edmonton that each one however ended the collection.
Artturi Lehkonen, Avalanche. The middle was one of many smartest commerce deadline acquisitions for any crew this season, and his impression has been speedy. Lehkonen has six targets and 5 assists within the playoffs, together with the additional time winner in Recreation 4 to finish the sweep of Edmonton.
Pat Maroon, Lightning. Whereas the Lightning are going for a three-peat, Maroon is his personal dynasty. The pugnacious ahead is in search of his fourth straight Stanley Cup and sixteenth straight playoff-round victory between the Blues in 2019 and the previous three seasons with the Lightning. Maroon is among the most bodily gamers on Tampa Bay, with an unmatched skill to speak trash, and he can also rating the occasional large objective. Contained in the locker room, he is among the most revered voices on the crew. A real character in a league that would use extra of them.
Brandon Hagel, Lightning. Hagel has discovered a house on Tampa Bay’s newly fashioned checking line with Cirelli and Alex Killorn. Their efficient play hasn’t translated into factors — Hagel has one objective in his previous 11 video games — however he had 25 within the common season. If a number of the Lightning’s nice protection turns into counterpunch alternatives on offense, Hagel may gain advantage. — Wyshynski
What can the Avs do if Nazem Kadri would not return?
Colorado’s contingency plan with out Kadri (thumb) actually comes all the way down to depth. The Avalanche undertaking to have gamers who can carve out bigger roles; it is only a less-than-ideal time within the season to experiment with such issues. However accidents occur. What are you able to do?
The flexibility to maneuver Rantanen to heart is an effective begin. That opens a winger slot for Andre Burakovsky within the high six and permits Valeri Nichushkin to get a glance on the highest line with MacKinnon and Landeskog. Nichushkin has had an underrated postseason to this point, producing 9 factors in 14 video games, and he could possibly be a game-changer for Colorado if Kadri cannot come again.
Then there’s Lehkonen, the hero of Recreation 4 in Edmonton. He crammed in for Kadri on the Avalanche’s power-play unit in that clincher, and the person benefit went 2-for-2. In all probability not a coincidence. Sakic constructed Colorado to have a powerful basis, and that is what ought to enable them to climate the lack of Kadri all through the finals, if mandatory.
And naturally, there’s Makar. He’s principally an additional ahead in addition to an elite defender, and that is going to mitigate a number of the loss felt in Kadri’s absence.
If there is a brilliant spot on the Kadri entrance, it is that he appears to be trending towards a return in some unspecified time in the future. Kadri has been within the fitness center and resumed skating — albeit with no stick — and coach Jared Bednar hasn’t dominated him out for Recreation 1 (though it is extremely unlikely). The underside line is there’s room to be optimistic about Kadri coming again. — Shilton
What can the Lightning count on out of Brayden Level?
It is powerful to say. Level suffered a lower-body harm in Recreation 7 of the primary spherical. Jon Cooper informed me that with the same harm within the common season, the anticipated timeline could be 4 to 6 weeks, and we’re simply on the entrance finish of that now. Level has labored extraordinarily arduous in rehab to get to this place, and I get the sense he would have performed Recreation 7 of the convention finals had the collection gone again to New York. Cooper stated Tuesday that Level might play in Recreation 1.
Cooper additionally informed me this example is not fairly like Steven Stamkos in 2020, when the captain suited up as a result of he needed to present himself an opportunity, even realizing he had the opportunity of aggravating the harm. Level is not on the similar danger.
The primary few occasions I watched Level skate over the previous two weeks, it was clear he wasn’t comfy, and he spilled into the boards at the least twice. He has seemed a lot smoother prior to now few days, however doing line rushes throughout follow and taking part in at recreation velocity are two very various things. — Kaplan
Who scores probably the most targets within the Stanley Cup Ultimate? Most factors?
Most factors: Nikita Kucherov. The Lightning winger is an offensive gem for them at 5-on-5 and on the facility play. His 1.35 factors per recreation leads the crew, and there isn’t any purpose to count on that tempo to gradual in opposition to the Avalanche’s goaltending.
Most targets: Nathan MacKinnon. The Avalanche heart is averaging 1.71 anticipated targets per 60 minutes of play in any respect strengths. A participant with 11 targets in 14 video games with MacKinnon’s shot quantity ought to be capable of do it for yet another spherical. — Wyshynski
What’s your Cup choose and why?
I picked the Avalanche in seven video games. There are a few causes for that:
The primary is that Colorado has been dominant all through the postseason. Whereas Tampa Bay has efficiently — and unsurprisingly — dealt with its ups and downs, there have not been many downs in any respect for the Avalanche. Even in video games Colorado did not play particularly properly, the Avs discovered a solution to get the job completed — and quick. Sweeping the Nashville Predators perhaps wasn’t an enormous shock. However making Edmonton look so meager? That was an eye-opener. Colorado is legit.
The second purpose I am bullish on the Avalanche is that this simply seems like their second. Once more, the Lightning are an unimaginable crew and will simply as simply show me flawed. Colorado has been dissatisfied and pissed off by its shortcomings the previous couple of seasons. The drive to lastly break via and never let this chance slip away is palpable. The Avalanche appear to understand they’ve the confluence of expertise and alternative proper now. And perhaps that may create a smidgen extra confidence and audacity that may push Colorado previous the defending champs. — Shilton
Earlier than the season, I picked the Avs over the Lightning within the Ultimate, so I caught with it for consistency. I feel that is going to be tight. I actually really feel it is going seven video games. And I imagine if Colorado wins, it is Cale Makar who wins the Conn Smythe Trophy. — Kaplan
My Stanley Cup playoff prognostications have been an abject embarrassment this season, as you possibly can little doubt inform by the shortage of championships for each my preseason choose, the Islanders, and my postseason choose, the Florida Panthers. So congratulations or I am sorry to the Colorado Avalanche, whom I’ve prognosticated to win the Cup in six video games.
The Avalanche have been a steamroller all postseason due to their scoring depth and their blazing velocity, which I feel goes to be powerful for the Lightning to decelerate. The Avs have actually discovered their groove at even energy within the playoffs (2.91 anticipated targets per 60). The Lightning are an elite defensive crew with the world’s greatest goaltender, and that gave me vital pause in making this choose. However I actually imagine this Colorado crew is manufactured from sterner stuff than the Leafs, Panthers or Rangers groups that wilted beneath adversity whereas the veteran Lightning embraced it. The Avs are quite a bit just like the Lightning in that means: studying from previous errors to grasp find out how to win within the playoffs.
However boy, are the Avalanche going to wish a save from any individual. {Dollars} to doughnuts, I guess it finally ends up being Pavel Francouz successful the day. — Wyshynski
