Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO) Stock, LLY StockVal Brickates Kennedy,
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- Up to 16 new GLP-1 drugs could be launched by 2029, eventually taking nearly a third of a potential $200B market by 2031 that should still be dominated by first-movers Novo Nordisk (NVO) and Eli Lilly (NYSE:LLY), according to a new report by Morningstar and Pitchbook.
- Morningstar said it sees Novo Nordisk (NVO) and Lilly (LLY) retaining approximately two-thirds of the total GLP-1 market by 2031, with around 68% of sales for weight-loss indications. Competing drugs could account for around $70B of the GLP-1 market by 2031.
- Near-term potential competitors include Roche (OTCQX:RHHBY), Amgen (AMGN), Pfizer (PFE), AstraZeneca (AZN), Boehringer, Viking Therapeutics (VKTX) and Structure Therapeutics (GPCR), all of which could launch rival weight-loss drugs within the next three to four years, according to the report.
- The report listed Viking (VKTX) and Structure (GPCR) as key takeout targets. Companies considered mostly likely to acquire a GLP-1 developer include Novo Nordisk (NVO), Lilly (LLY), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and Merck (MRK), followed by AstraZeneca (AZN), Roche (OTCQX:RHHBY) and Boehringer.
- Morningstar said the new drugs will likely take market share from Novo Nordisk (NVO) and Lilly (LLY). It added that while it sees the two companies retaining nearly 70% of the market, it regards the stocks as “overvalued.”
- More competition will also put additional pressure on prices. By 2027, Morningstar said it expects “new entrants to cause the annual pricing declines to accelerate toward 10%-15% as competitors work to gain insurance coverage.”
More on Eli Lilly, Novo Nordisk, etc.
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